Grasshoppers 2-0 Yverdon Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grasshoppers at 62%, yet in-form Yverdon Sport provide a compelling counter-argument — this Grasshoppers vs Yverdon Sport fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Grasshoppers and Yverdon Sport meet at Stadion Letzigrund in Super League, Relegation Round - 3. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 14 May 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Grasshoppers (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
In front of their own supporters this season, Grasshoppers have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadion Letzigrund — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Grasshoppers are significantly better at Stadion Letzigrund than their overall form suggests.
Yverdon Sport have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Yverdon Sport's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Yverdon Sport are 0.70 PPG clear of Grasshoppers in recent Super League fixtures (1.30 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Grasshoppers, 1 for Yverdon Sport and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 2–3 with Yverdon Sport winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Grasshoppers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Yverdon Sport goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grasshoppers 51% versus Yverdon Sport 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grasshoppers 43% | Yverdon Sport 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grasshoppers 1.76 xG and Yverdon Sport 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grasshoppers attack 0.816 / defence 0.954 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.695 / defence 1.487. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.107. Yverdon Sport bring a strong defensive rating of 1.487 — this is suppressing Grasshoppers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 69 Grasshoppers games / 33 Yverdon Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grasshoppers 62% | Draw 23% | Yverdon Sport 15%. Fair-value odds: Grasshoppers 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Yverdon Sport 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Grasshoppers (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grasshoppers are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Yverdon Sport (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Grasshoppers 50% | Yverdon Sport 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grasshoppers vs Yverdon Sport | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Stadion Letzigrund • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 May 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grasshoppers 62% | Draw 23% | Yverdon Sport 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 43% | xG Grasshoppers 1.76 / Yverdon Sport 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Grasshoppers attack 0.816 / def 0.954 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.695 / def 1.487 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Grasshoppers (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Grasshoppers xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Yverdon Sport xG
43%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grasshoppers vs Yverdon Sport kick off?
Grasshoppers vs Yverdon Sport kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 14 May 2024 at Stadion Letzigrund.
What was the final score in Grasshoppers vs Yverdon Sport?
Grasshoppers 2 - 0 Yverdon Sport.
Where is Grasshoppers vs Yverdon Sport being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letzigrund.
What competition is Grasshoppers vs Yverdon Sport part of?
Grasshoppers vs Yverdon Sport is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Grasshoppers vs Yverdon Sport?
Our statistical model gives Grasshoppers a 62% chance of winning, Yverdon Sport a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Grasshoppers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grasshoppers vs Yverdon Sport?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Grasshoppers and Yverdon Sport will score (BTTS).
Will Grasshoppers vs Yverdon Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grasshoppers and Yverdon Sport?
Record (3 meetings): Grasshoppers 1W | Draws 1 | Yverdon Sport 1W.
What form are Grasshoppers and Yverdon Sport in?
Grasshoppers (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Yverdon Sport (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Grasshoppers's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Yverdon Sport's defensive record (1.49x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. Flip it around — Yverdon Sport's attack (0.69x) against Grasshoppers's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 69/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.8%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grasshoppers Win
62%
1.61
23%
4.37
15%
6.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Grasshoppers xG
Total xG
2.50
0.73
Yverdon Sport xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
6.60
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
30%
3.36
3%
38.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 10.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grasshoppers vs Yverdon Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Grasshoppers and Yverdon Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Grasshoppers and 0.73 for Yverdon Sport, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Grasshoppers vs Yverdon Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Grasshoppers's recent record stands at 9W 7D 19L from 35 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Yverdon Sport, meanwhile, have gone 12W 7D 16L across 35 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Grasshoppers against 1.23 for Yverdon Sport. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Grasshoppers have managed 7W 3D 7L from 17 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.97 PPG overall — Grasshoppers are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Yverdon Sport's away record stands at 1W 3D 13L across 17 trips, a 0.35 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yverdon Sport's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grasshoppers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Grasshoppers are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Yverdon Sport are on 1.34 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yverdon Sport in 66%.
Last 35 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grasshoppers
Current Season
Yverdon Sport
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grasshoppers and Yverdon Sport in coming into this match?
Grasshoppers have gone 9W 7D 19L in their last 35 games (0.97 PPG), while Yverdon Sport have gone 12W 7D 16L in their last 35 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grasshoppers at home or Yverdon Sport away?
Grasshoppers's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grasshoppers at home: 1.41 PPG; Yverdon Sport away: 0.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Grasshoppers have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Grasshoppers won 5-0 on 14 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grasshoppers have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Yverdon Sport — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Grasshoppers
2
Draws
2
Yverdon Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grasshoppers and Yverdon Sport?
From 8 meetings on record, Grasshoppers have won 4, Yverdon Sport have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Grasshoppers and Yverdon Sport last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2025, when Grasshoppers 5-0 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between Grasshoppers and Yverdon Sport?
Grasshoppers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Grasshoppers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grasshoppers 59%, Yverdon Sport 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Grasshoppers) and 59% (Yverdon Sport).
On the defensive side: Grasshoppers have failed to score in 35% of games; Yverdon Sport in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grasshoppers home games / Yverdon Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grasshoppers play Yverdon Sport?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Grasshoppers's games and 71% of Yverdon Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grasshoppers vs Yverdon Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Grasshoppers's recent games and 59% of Yverdon Sport's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grasshoppers and Yverdon Sport tend to score early?
Grasshoppers have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Yverdon Sport in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Grasshoppers cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Yverdon Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grasshoppers beat Yverdon Sport 2-0 at Stadion Letzigrund, Relegation Round - 3, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grasshoppers 1.76 xG and Yverdon Sport 0.73 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grasshoppers attack 0.82 / defence 0.95 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.69 / defence 1.49, drawn from 69/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grasshoppers 62% | Draw 23% | Yverdon Sport 15%, with Grasshoppers to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grasshoppers 43%, Yverdon Sport 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grasshoppers's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grasshoppers 0.97 PPG, Yverdon Sport 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grasshoppers win broke the near-deadlock. Grasshoppers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.