Grasshoppers 3-2 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grasshoppers at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Grasshoppers face Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Letzigrund plays host to Grasshoppers versus Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in Super League (Relegation Round - 1). Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Grasshoppers have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Grasshoppers's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Grasshoppers are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
On the road, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Grasshoppers, 0.80 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 2 Mar 2024, ended Grasshoppers 1–1 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Grasshoppers half-time and goal-timing data (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy half-time and goal-timing data (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grasshoppers 51% versus Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grasshoppers 46% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grasshoppers 1.39 xG and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grasshoppers attack 0.807 / defence 0.950 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.887 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.107. Data: built from Grasshoppers's last 69 games and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's last 33.
Result probabilities: Grasshoppers 47% | Draw 27% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 25%. Fair-value odds: Grasshoppers 2.11 | Draw 3.66 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3.95. Grasshoppers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Grasshoppers as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grasshoppers if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Grasshoppers 50% (last 10 home games) | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grasshoppers vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Stadion Letzigrund • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grasshoppers 47% | Draw 27% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Grasshoppers 1.39 / Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Grasshoppers attack 0.807 / def 0.950 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.887 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Grasshoppers (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Grasshoppers xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Grasshoppers vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy FAQs
What time does Grasshoppers vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy kick off?
Grasshoppers vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Stadion Letzigrund.
What was the final score in Grasshoppers vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Grasshoppers 3 - 2 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
Where is Grasshoppers vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letzigrund.
What competition is Grasshoppers vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy part of?
Grasshoppers vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is a Super League fixture (Relegation Round - 1) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Grasshoppers vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Our statistical model gives Grasshoppers a 47% chance of winning, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Grasshoppers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grasshoppers vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Grasshoppers and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Grasshoppers vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Grasshoppers's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's attack (0.89x) against Grasshoppers's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from Grasshoppers's last 69 games and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grasshoppers Win
47%
2.11
27%
3.66
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Grasshoppers xG
Total xG
2.32
0.93
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
6%
15.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.7 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Grasshoppers vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Grasshoppers vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Grasshoppers and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Grasshoppers and 0.93 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Grasshoppers vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Grasshoppers's recent record stands at 8W 7D 20L from 35 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 20L across 35 games — 0.83 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.89 PPG for Grasshoppers against 0.83 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Grasshoppers have managed 6W 4D 7L from their last 17 home games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.89 PPG overall — Grasshoppers are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's away record stands at 4W 2D 11L across their last 17 away games, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grasshoppers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Grasshoppers are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are on 1.11 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in 63%.
Last 35 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grasshoppers
Current Season
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Current Season
Grasshoppers (Home) vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Grasshoppers
Current Season
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Current Season
❓ Grasshoppers vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Form FAQs
What form are Grasshoppers and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in coming into this match?
Grasshoppers have gone 8W 7D 20L in their last 35 games (0.89 PPG), while Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have gone 7W 8D 20L in their last 35 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grasshoppers at home or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away?
Grasshoppers's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grasshoppers at home: 1.29 PPG; Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 4 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Grasshoppers won Grasshoppers 5-2 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy on 12 Nov 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grasshoppers have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Grasshoppers
1
Draws
1
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Recent Meetings
❓ Grasshoppers vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Grasshoppers and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Grasshoppers have won 2, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Grasshoppers and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 May 2024: Grasshoppers 3-2 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
Who has won more matches between Grasshoppers and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Grasshoppers have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Grasshoppers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grasshoppers 59%, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Grasshoppers) and 65% (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Grasshoppers have failed to score in 35% of games; Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grasshoppers home games / Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Grasshoppers vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Grasshoppers and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Grasshoppers's games and 53% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Grasshoppers and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Grasshoppers's matches and 65% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's.
Do Grasshoppers and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Grasshoppers's recent matches and 71% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Grasshoppers edge out Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grasshoppers beat Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3-2 at Stadion Letzigrund, Relegation Round - 1, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grasshoppers 1.39 xG and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0.93 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Grasshoppers beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grasshoppers attack 0.81 / defence 0.95 against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.89 / defence 1.18, drawn from 69/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grasshoppers 47% | Draw 27% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 25%, with Grasshoppers to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grasshoppers 46%, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grasshoppers's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grasshoppers 0.89 PPG, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grasshoppers win broke the near-deadlock. Grasshoppers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.