FC Thun 5-1 Grasshoppers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Thun at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Thun vs Grasshoppers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Grasshoppers travel to Stockhorn Arena to take on FC Thun. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Thun stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Super League matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
FC Thun's home record at Stockhorn Arena: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stockhorn Arena this season.
Grasshoppers — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, Grasshoppers have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
FC Thun are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 2.10 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for FC Thun, 1 for Grasshoppers and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 3–1 with FC Thun winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC Thun in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Grasshoppers in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Thun 72% and Grasshoppers 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Thun 79% | Grasshoppers 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Thun 2.23 xG and Grasshoppers 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Thun attack 1.294 / defence 0.891 | Grasshoppers attack 0.838 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.694 / away 1.491. FC Thun carry an above-average attack strength of 1.294 — their λ of 2.23 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 29 FC Thun games / 62 Grasshoppers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Thun 61% | Draw 24% | Grasshoppers 16%. Fair-value odds: FC Thun 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | Grasshoppers 6.25. The model has a clear lean to FC Thun (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.23 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Thun as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.34 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Thun 70% | Grasshoppers 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Thun vs Grasshoppers | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stockhorn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Thun 61% | Draw 24% | Grasshoppers 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 62% | xG FC Thun 2.23 / Grasshoppers 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: FC Thun attack 1.294 / def 0.891 | Grasshoppers attack 0.838 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.694 / away 1.491 • Poisson stance: FC Thun (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
FC Thun xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Grasshoppers xG
62%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Thun vs Grasshoppers kick off?
FC Thun vs Grasshoppers kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Stockhorn Arena.
What was the final score in FC Thun vs Grasshoppers?
FC Thun 5 - 1 Grasshoppers.
Where is FC Thun vs Grasshoppers being played?
The match is being played at Stockhorn Arena.
What competition is FC Thun vs Grasshoppers part of?
FC Thun vs Grasshoppers is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Thun vs Grasshoppers?
Our statistical model gives FC Thun a 61% chance of winning, Grasshoppers a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Thun the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Thun vs Grasshoppers?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FC Thun and Grasshoppers will score (BTTS).
Will FC Thun vs Grasshoppers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and Grasshoppers?
Record (4 meetings): FC Thun 1W | Draws 2 | Grasshoppers 1W.
What form are FC Thun and Grasshoppers in?
FC Thun (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Grasshoppers (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Thun's attack rating (1.29) and Grasshoppers's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 2.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Grasshoppers's attack versus FC Thun's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Thun Win
61%
1.65
24%
4.22
16%
6.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
FC Thun xG
Total xG
3.34
1.11
Grasshoppers xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
6.34
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
11%
9.31
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
2%
59.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Thun vs Grasshoppers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are FC Thun and Grasshoppers expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for FC Thun and 1.11 for Grasshoppers, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Thun vs Grasshoppers?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, FC Thun have picked up 2.34 PPG on a 22W 2D 5L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Grasshoppers's form line: 5W 9D 15L from 29 games, 0.83 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L.
Put side by side, FC Thun are the form team by 1.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Grasshoppers.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Thun have posted 2.07 PPG from 14 outings (9W 2D 3L).
On the road, Grasshoppers have gone 2W 4D 8L from 14 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Thun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Thun are averaging 2.28 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Grasshoppers are on 1.28 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Thun have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; Grasshoppers in 62%.
Last 29 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Thun
Current Season
Grasshoppers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Thun and Grasshoppers in coming into this match?
FC Thun have gone 22W 2D 5L in their last 29 games (2.34 PPG), while Grasshoppers have gone 5W 9D 15L in their last 29 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Thun at home or Grasshoppers away?
FC Thun's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Thun at home: 2.07 PPG; Grasshoppers away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Thun and Grasshoppers runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Thun have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2026, when FC Thun won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Thun's record when hosting Grasshoppers specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
FC Thun
2
Draws
1
Grasshoppers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and Grasshoppers?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Thun have won 2, Grasshoppers have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Thun and Grasshoppers last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when FC Thun 5-1 Grasshoppers.
Who has won more matches between FC Thun and Grasshoppers?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Grasshoppers see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Thun 71%, Grasshoppers 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (FC Thun) and 43% (Grasshoppers). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Grasshoppers in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Thun home games / Grasshoppers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Thun play Grasshoppers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC Thun's games and 50% of Grasshoppers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Thun vs Grasshoppers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of FC Thun's matches and 43% of Grasshoppers's.
Do FC Thun and Grasshoppers tend to score early?
FC Thun have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Grasshoppers in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Thun run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Grasshoppers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Thun beat Grasshoppers 5-1 at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 2.23 xG and Grasshoppers 1.11 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. FC Thun beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 1.29 / defence 0.89 against Grasshoppers attack 0.84 / defence 1.02, drawn from 29/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Thun 61% | Draw 24% | Grasshoppers 16%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 79%, Grasshoppers 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Thun's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Grasshoppers's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 0.83. Form held, and they took the win. FC Thun (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.29 average — above their attacking norm. Grasshoppers (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.