FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Basel 1893 at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 13 as FC Thun welcome FC Basel 1893 to Stockhorn Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 November 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Thun stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.70 conceded. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Thun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Thun's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Stockhorn Arena this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, FC Basel 1893 have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Basel 1893's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Thun 1.00 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for FC Thun, 3 for FC Basel 1893 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2026, ended 2–4 with FC Basel 1893 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Thun in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
FC Basel 1893 in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Thun 71% and FC Basel 1893 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Thun 75% | FC Basel 1893 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Thun 1.40 xG and FC Basel 1893 2.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Thun attack 0.761 / defence 1.215 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.012 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.864 / away 1.764. FC Thun's attack strength of 0.761 is below the league average — the 1.40 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 FC Thun games / 43 FC Basel 1893 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Thun 24% | Draw 21% | FC Basel 1893 55%. Fair-value odds: FC Thun 4.17 | Draw 4.76 | FC Basel 1893 1.82. The model has a clear lean to FC Basel 1893 (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 2.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Basel 1893 are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.57 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates are neutral: FC Thun 60% | FC Basel 1893 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stockhorn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Thun 24% | Draw 21% | FC Basel 1893 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG FC Thun 1.40 / FC Basel 1893 2.17 • Poisson strength factors: FC Thun attack 0.761 / def 1.215 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.012 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.864 / away 1.764 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
FC Thun xG
Expected Goals
2.17
FC Basel 1893 xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 is scheduled to kick off at 15:30 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at Stockhorn Arena.
Where is FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Stockhorn Arena.
What competition is FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives FC Thun a 24% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 55% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and FC Basel 1893?
Record (5 meetings): FC Thun 2W | Draws 0 | FC Basel 1893 3W.
What form are FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 in?
FC Thun (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Thun's attack rating (0.76) and FC Basel 1893's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Basel 1893's attack versus FC Thun's defence, projects 2.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 1-3 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
24%
4.10
21%
4.87
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
1 – 3
6.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
FC Thun xG
Total xG
3.57
2.17
FC Basel 1893 xG
4.10
24%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
11%
8.74
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
3%
35.81
14%
7.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for FC Thun and 2.17 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Thun come into this having played 48 games, going 27W 4D 17L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for FC Thun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Basel 1893 sit at 1.44 PPG from 48 outings (20W 9D 19L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for FC Basel 1893 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Thun on 1.77 PPG, FC Basel 1893 on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Thun's home form reads 12W 3D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Basel 1893 have taken 1.57 points per game from 23 outings (11W 3D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC Thun are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 1.50 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Thun have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; FC Basel 1893 in 62%.
Last 48 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Thun
Blended
FC Basel 1893
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
FC Thun have gone 27W 4D 17L in their last 48 games (1.77 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 20W 9D 19L in their last 48 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Thun at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
FC Thun's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Thun at home: 1.70 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: FC Basel 1893 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
FC Thun's record when hosting FC Basel 1893 specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
FC Thun
0
Draws
3
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and FC Basel 1893?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Thun have won 2, FC Basel 1893 have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when FC Basel 1893 4-2 FC Thun.
Who has won more matches between FC Thun and FC Basel 1893?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Thun 65%, FC Basel 1893 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for FC Thun and 74% for FC Basel 1893. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Thun have failed to score in 26% of games; FC Basel 1893 in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Thun home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Thun play FC Basel 1893?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of FC Thun's games and 56% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of FC Thun's matches and 74% of FC Basel 1893's.
Do FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 tend to score early?
FC Thun have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FC Basel 1893 in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.