FC ST. Gallen 4-0 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 36 as FC ST. Gallen welcome Lausanne to Kybunpark. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 May 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC ST. Gallen have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC ST. Gallen's home record at Kybunpark: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lausanne — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Lausanne's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
FC ST. Gallen carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
FC ST. Gallen trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Lausanne trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 69% and Lausanne 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC ST. Gallen 71% | Lausanne 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 2.23 xG and Lausanne 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.166 / defence 1.170 | Lausanne attack 0.645 / defence 1.441. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.447. Lausanne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.441 — this is suppressing FC ST. Gallen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 FC ST. Gallen games / 35 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 63% | Draw 20% | Lausanne 17%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Lausanne 5.88. The model has a clear lean to FC ST. Gallen (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.23 / 1.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC ST. Gallen are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 70% | Lausanne 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Kybunpark • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 63% | Draw 20% | Lausanne 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 60% | xG FC ST. Gallen 2.23 / Lausanne 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.166 / def 1.170 | Lausanne attack 0.645 / def 1.441 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.447 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Lausanne xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
FC ST. Gallen 4 - 0 Lausanne.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at Kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 63% chance of winning, Lausanne a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne in?
FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Lausanne (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC ST. Gallen's attack at 1.17x the league average against Lausanne's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 2.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lausanne's attack versus FC ST. Gallen's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
63%
1.59
20%
4.99
17%
5.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.32
1.09
Lausanne xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
5.82
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
11%
9.28
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
2%
54.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.09 for Lausanne, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC ST. Gallen's recent record stands at 13W 8D 14L from 35 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Lausanne, meanwhile, have gone 4W 10D 21L across 35 games — 0.63 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC ST. Gallen by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lausanne heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC ST. Gallen have managed 6W 7D 4L from 17 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lausanne's away record stands at 1W 5D 11L across 17 trips, a 0.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.06 scored and 2.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Lausanne in 66%.
Last 35 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Current Season
Lausanne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 13W 8D 14L in their last 35 games (1.34 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 4W 10D 21L in their last 35 (0.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or Lausanne away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.47 PPG; Lausanne away: 0.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when FC ST. Gallen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC ST. Gallen's record when hosting Lausanne specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
FC ST. Gallen
2
Draws
1
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne?
From 10 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 7, Lausanne have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Lausanne 1-1 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC ST. Gallen 71%, Lausanne 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (FC ST. Gallen) and 53% (Lausanne). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lausanne in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play Lausanne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 59% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 53% of Lausanne's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC ST. Gallen run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Lausanne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen beat Lausanne 4-0 at Kybunpark, Regular Season - 36, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 2.23 xG and Lausanne 1.09 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lausanne landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.17 / defence 1.17 against Lausanne attack 0.65 / defence 1.44, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 63% | Draw 20% | Lausanne 17%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 71%, Lausanne 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Lausanne's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC ST. Gallen arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.63. Form held, and they took the win. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.