FC ST. Gallen 1-0 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC ST. Gallen at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 33 as FC ST. Gallen welcome FC Sion to kybunpark. Kick-off is set for Monday 21 April 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC ST. Gallen have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC ST. Gallen have posted 4W 5D 1L at kybunpark — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — FC ST. Gallen are significantly better at kybunpark than their overall form suggests.
FC Sion — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Super League this season, FC Sion have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (FC ST. Gallen) versus 0.90 (FC Sion). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC ST. Gallen register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, FC Sion in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for FC ST. Gallen, 0 for FC Sion and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC ST. Gallen trading profile (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
FC Sion trading profile (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 62% and FC Sion 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 47% | FC Sion 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 2.13 xG and FC Sion 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.090 / defence 0.945 | FC Sion attack 0.757 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.228. FC Sion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.298 — this is suppressing FC ST. Gallen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 FC ST. Gallen games / 32 FC Sion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 66% | Draw 21% | FC Sion 14%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 1.52 | Draw 4.76 | FC Sion 7.14. The model has a clear lean to FC ST. Gallen (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC ST. Gallen are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 70% | FC Sion 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: kybunpark • Kick-off: Monday 21 Apr 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 66% | Draw 21% | FC Sion 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 52% | xG FC ST. Gallen 2.13 / FC Sion 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.090 / def 0.945 | FC Sion attack 0.757 / def 1.298 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
0.88
FC Sion xG
52%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion kicked off at 15:30 on Monday 21 April 2025 at kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
FC ST. Gallen 1 - 0 FC Sion.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 66% chance of winning, FC Sion a 14% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion?
Record (3 meetings): FC ST. Gallen 1W | Draws 2 | FC Sion 0W.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion in?
FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. FC Sion (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC ST. Gallen's attack at 1.09x the league average against FC Sion's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 2.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sion's attack versus FC ST. Gallen's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
66%
1.53
21%
4.83
14%
7.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.01
0.88
FC Sion xG
1.53
66%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
7.28
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
12%
8.43
Win to Nil
27%
3.67
2%
61.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 0.88 for FC Sion, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC ST. Gallen's recent record stands at 11W 11D 10L from 32 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five.
FC Sion, meanwhile, have gone 9W 9D 14L across 32 games — 1.12 PPG, with D-D-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC ST. Gallen on 1.38 PPG, FC Sion on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC ST. Gallen have managed 7W 6D 2L from 15 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — FC ST. Gallen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FC Sion's away record stands at 2W 2D 11L across 15 trips, a 0.53 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Sion's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.28 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; FC Sion in 62%.
Last 32 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Current Season
FC Sion
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 11W 11D 10L in their last 32 games (1.38 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 9W 9D 14L in their last 32 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or FC Sion away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.80 PPG; FC Sion away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: FC Sion have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2023, when FC ST. Gallen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC ST. Gallen's record when hosting FC Sion specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC ST. Gallen
4
Draws
3
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion?
From 10 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 3, FC Sion have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when FC ST. Gallen 0-3 FC Sion.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC ST. Gallen 67%, FC Sion 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (FC ST. Gallen) and 47% (FC Sion).
On the defensive side: FC Sion in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play FC Sion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 53% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of FC ST. Gallen's recent games and 47% of FC Sion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC ST. Gallen edge out FC Sion 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen beat FC Sion 1-0 at kybunpark, Regular Season - 33, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 2.13 xG and FC Sion 0.88 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC ST. Gallen fell 1.1 short of their projected output. FC Sion landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.09 / defence 0.94 against FC Sion attack 0.76 / defence 1.30, drawn from 65/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 66% | Draw 21% | FC Sion 14%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 47%, FC Sion 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Sion's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.38 PPG, FC Sion 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.