FC Sion 0-4 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 22 as FC Sion welcome FC ST. Gallen to Stade de Tourbillon. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 February 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC Sion have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sion's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stade de Tourbillon this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC ST. Gallen stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC ST. Gallen away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. FC ST. Gallen's 1.30 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of FC Sion's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
FC Sion in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
FC ST. Gallen in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Sion 61% and FC ST. Gallen 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 56% | FC ST. Gallen 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.73 xG and FC ST. Gallen 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.850 / defence 1.329 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.137 / defence 1.282. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.329. FC ST. Gallen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.282 — this is suppressing FC Sion's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 FC Sion games / 57 FC ST. Gallen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 32% | Draw 25% | FC ST. Gallen 43%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | FC ST. Gallen 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC ST. Gallen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.73 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Sion 50% | FC ST. Gallen 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 32% | Draw 25% | FC ST. Gallen 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 73% | xG FC Sion 1.73 / FC ST. Gallen 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.850 / def 1.329 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.137 / def 1.282 | league avg home 1.585 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
2.01
FC ST. Gallen xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
FC Sion 0 - 4 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 32% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen in?
FC Sion (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Sion's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against FC ST. Gallen's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, FC ST. Gallen's attack versus FC Sion's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
32%
3.12
25%
4.06
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
FC Sion xG
Total xG
3.73
2.01
FC ST. Gallen xG
3.12
32%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.68
Clean Sheet
13%
7.45
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
4%
23.21
8%
12.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for FC Sion and 2.01 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 3.73.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Sion come into this having played 57 games, going 16W 15D 26L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC ST. Gallen sit at 1.39 PPG from 57 outings (22W 13D 22L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Sion on 1.11 PPG, FC ST. Gallen on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Sion's home form reads 8W 6D 14L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, FC ST. Gallen have taken 1.04 points per game from 28 outings (9W 2D 17L).
The Goals Picture
FC Sion are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.89 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Sion have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; FC ST. Gallen in 68%.
Last 57 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Blended
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 16W 15D 26L in their last 57 games (1.11 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 22W 13D 22L in their last 57 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
FC Sion's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.07 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2023, when FC ST. Gallen won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Sion's record when hosting FC ST. Gallen specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Sion
4
Draws
4
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 2, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when FC ST. Gallen 0-3 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 50%, FC ST. Gallen 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for FC Sion and 75% for FC ST. Gallen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Sion have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play FC ST. Gallen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC Sion's games and 68% of FC ST. Gallen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of FC Sion's matches and 75% of FC ST. Gallen's.
Do FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC ST. Gallen in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC ST. Gallen run riot with a 0-4 hammering of FC Sion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen beat FC Sion 0-4 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.73 xG and FC ST. Gallen 2.01 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. FC Sion fell 1.7 short of their projected output. FC ST. Gallen outscored their 2.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.85 / defence 1.33 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.14 / defence 1.28, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 32% | Draw 25% | FC ST. Gallen 43%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 56%, FC ST. Gallen 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Sion 1.11 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.