FC Sion 3-2 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC ST. Gallen (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Sion face FC ST. Gallen.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 11 as FC Sion welcome FC ST. Gallen to Stade de Tourbillon. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 28 October 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC Sion have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sion's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stade de Tourbillon this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC ST. Gallen stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC ST. Gallen away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. FC ST. Gallen's 2.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of FC Sion's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, FC ST. Gallen have the better historical record — 3 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for FC Sion.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC ST. Gallen have won 3 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
FC Sion in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
FC ST. Gallen in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Sion 56% versus FC ST. Gallen 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 46% | FC ST. Gallen 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 0.99 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.619 / defence 0.807 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.113 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.846 / away 1.406. FC Sion's attack strength of 0.619 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 FC Sion games / 43 FC ST. Gallen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 29% | Draw 28% | FC ST. Gallen 43%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | FC ST. Gallen 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC ST. Gallen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: FC Sion 50% | FC ST. Gallen 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Oct 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 29% | Draw 28% | FC ST. Gallen 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG FC Sion 0.99 / FC ST. Gallen 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.619 / def 0.807 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.113 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.846 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.26
FC ST. Gallen xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 28 October 2025 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
FC Sion 3 - 2 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 29% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen?
Record (6 meetings): FC Sion 0W | Draws 3 | FC ST. Gallen 3W.
What form are FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen in?
FC Sion (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Sion's attacking strength (0.62x league average) is weighed against FC ST. Gallen's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, FC ST. Gallen's attack versus FC Sion's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
29%
3.45
28%
3.52
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
FC Sion xG
Total xG
2.25
1.26
FC ST. Gallen xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
8%
12.18
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 13.3 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.26 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Sion come into this having played 48 games, going 15W 14D 19L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC ST. Gallen sit at 1.52 PPG from 48 outings (20W 13D 15L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Sion on 1.23 PPG, FC ST. Gallen on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Sion's home form reads 9W 9D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, FC ST. Gallen have taken 1.17 points per game from 24 outings (7W 7D 10L).
The Goals Picture
FC Sion are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.56 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen in 62%.
Last 48 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Blended
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 15W 14D 19L in their last 48 games (1.23 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 20W 13D 15L in their last 48 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
FC Sion's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.50 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2023, when FC ST. Gallen won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Sion's record when hosting FC ST. Gallen specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Sion
4
Draws
4
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 2, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when FC ST. Gallen 0-3 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 58%, FC ST. Gallen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (FC Sion) and 46% (FC ST. Gallen).
On the defensive side: FC Sion have failed to score in 29% of games; FC ST. Gallen in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play FC ST. Gallen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of FC Sion's games and 67% of FC ST. Gallen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of FC Sion's recent games and 46% of FC ST. Gallen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC ST. Gallen in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Sion defy the odds to beat FC ST. Gallen 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sion beat FC ST. Gallen 3-2 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 0.99 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.26 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC Sion beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.62 / defence 0.81 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.11 / defence 0.86, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 29% | Draw 28% | FC ST. Gallen 43%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual FC Sion win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 46%, FC ST. Gallen 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Sion 1.23 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Sion win broke the near-deadlock. FC Sion (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.