FC Basel 1893 0-0 Yverdon Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Basel 1893 at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Yverdon Sport make the trip to St. Jakob-Park to face FC Basel 1893 in Super League, Relegation Round - 5. The match kicks off on Tuesday 21 May 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
FC Basel 1893 (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Basel 1893 have posted 4W 3D 3L at St. Jakob-Park — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Yverdon Sport's overall Super League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League this season, Yverdon Sport have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for FC Basel 1893 against 1.30 for Yverdon Sport. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: FC Basel 1893 2W, Yverdon Sport 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 2–0 with FC Basel 1893 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FC Basel 1893 half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Yverdon Sport half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Basel 1893 54% versus Yverdon Sport 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Basel 1893 49% | Yverdon Sport 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 2.00 xG and Yverdon Sport 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.935 / defence 1.021 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.700 / defence 1.478. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.108. Yverdon Sport bring a strong defensive rating of 1.478 — this is suppressing FC Basel 1893's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 69 FC Basel 1893 games / 33 Yverdon Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 66% | Draw 20% | Yverdon Sport 14%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Yverdon Sport 7.14. The model has a clear lean to FC Basel 1893 (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Basel 1893 at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: FC Basel 1893 50% | Yverdon Sport 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 May 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 66% | Draw 20% | Yverdon Sport 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 47% | xG FC Basel 1893 2.00 / Yverdon Sport 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.935 / def 1.021 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.700 / def 1.478 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Yverdon Sport xG
47%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 21 May 2024 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport?
FC Basel 1893 0 - 0 Yverdon Sport.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 66% chance of winning, Yverdon Sport a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and Yverdon Sport will score (BTTS).
Will FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and Yverdon Sport?
Record (3 meetings): FC Basel 1893 2W | Draws 0 | Yverdon Sport 1W.
What form are FC Basel 1893 and Yverdon Sport in?
FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Yverdon Sport (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC Basel 1893's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Yverdon Sport's defensive record (1.48x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. Flip it around — Yverdon Sport's attack (0.70x) against FC Basel 1893's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 69/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 1-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
66%
1.52
20%
4.90
14%
7.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
2.80
0.79
Yverdon Sport xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
7.20
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
13%
7.42
Win to Nil
30%
3.36
2%
53.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and Yverdon Sport expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 0.79 for Yverdon Sport, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, FC Basel 1893 have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 13W 9D 15L record — D-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Yverdon Sport's form line: 13W 7D 17L from 37 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for FC Basel 1893 against 1.24 for Yverdon Sport. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Basel 1893 have posted 1.44 PPG from 18 outings (7W 5D 6L).
On the road, Yverdon Sport have gone 1W 3D 14L from 18 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yverdon Sport's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Yverdon Sport are on 1.35 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yverdon Sport in 65%.
Last 37 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Current Season
Yverdon Sport
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Basel 1893 and Yverdon Sport in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 13W 9D 15L in their last 37 games (1.30 PPG), while Yverdon Sport have gone 13W 7D 17L in their last 37 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or Yverdon Sport away?
FC Basel 1893's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 1.44 PPG; Yverdon Sport away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Basel 1893 have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Basel 1893 won 5-0 on 21 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Basel 1893 have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Yverdon Sport — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
FC Basel 1893
1
Draws
1
Yverdon Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and Yverdon Sport?
From 7 meetings on record, FC Basel 1893 have won 5, Yverdon Sport have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and Yverdon Sport last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2025, when FC Basel 1893 5-0 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and Yverdon Sport?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Basel 1893 56%, Yverdon Sport 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (FC Basel 1893) and 56% (Yverdon Sport).
On the defensive side: Yverdon Sport in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / Yverdon Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Basel 1893 play Yverdon Sport?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of FC Basel 1893's games and 67% of Yverdon Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of FC Basel 1893's recent games and 56% of Yverdon Sport's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Basel 1893 and Yverdon Sport tend to score early?
FC Basel 1893 have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Yverdon Sport in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Basel 1893's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 and Yverdon Sport finished level at 0-0 at St. Jakob-Park, Relegation Round - 5, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 2.00 xG and Yverdon Sport 0.79 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 0.94 / defence 1.02 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.70 / defence 1.48, drawn from 69/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 66% | Draw 20% | Yverdon Sport 14%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 49%, Yverdon Sport 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Basel 1893 1.30 PPG, Yverdon Sport 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.