FC Basel 1893 2-0 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
St. Jakob-Park plays host to FC Basel 1893 versus FC ST. Gallen in Super League (matchday 15). Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 15:30 UK time.
Form
FC Basel 1893 (all games): 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Basel 1893's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — FC Basel 1893 are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
FC ST. Gallen have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
FC ST. Gallen's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 6D 3L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC ST. Gallen are 1.50 PPG clear of FC Basel 1893 over their recent games (2.00 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from FC Basel 1893's last 10 home games and FC ST. Gallen's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of FC Basel 1893's games and 80% of FC ST. Gallen's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
FC Basel 1893 half-time and goal-timing data (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
FC ST. Gallen half-time and goal-timing data (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Basel 1893 63% and FC ST. Gallen 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Basel 1893 55% | FC ST. Gallen 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Basel 1893 surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while FC ST. Gallen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.34 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.822 / defence 1.087 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.975 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.793 / away 1.433. Data: built from FC Basel 1893's last 49 games and FC ST. Gallen's last 50.
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 32% | Draw 27% | FC ST. Gallen 40%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 3.08 | Draw 3.68 | FC ST. Gallen 2.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC ST. Gallen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Basel 1893's last 10 home games and FC ST. Gallen's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Basel 1893 70% (last 10 home games) | FC ST. Gallen 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, matchday 15 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 32% | Draw 27% | FC ST. Gallen 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG FC Basel 1893 1.34 / FC ST. Gallen 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.822 / def 1.087 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.975 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.793 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
1.52
FC ST. Gallen xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen FAQs
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 26 November 2023 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
FC Basel 1893 2 - 0 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen is a Super League fixture (matchday 15) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 32% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Basel 1893's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against FC ST. Gallen's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — FC ST. Gallen's attack (0.97x) against FC Basel 1893's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from FC Basel 1893's last 49 games and FC ST. Gallen's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
32%
3.08
27%
3.68
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
2.86
1.52
FC ST. Gallen xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
7%
14.05
11%
9.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.7 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 1.52 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Basel 1893 come into this having played 49 games, going 13W 16D 20L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, FC ST. Gallen sit at 1.47 PPG from 49 outings (19W 15D 15L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for FC Basel 1893 against 1.47 for FC ST. Gallen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC Basel 1893's home form reads 8W 9D 7L across their last 24 home games, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, FC ST. Gallen have taken 0.88 points per game from their last 24 away games (4W 9D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC ST. Gallen's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.92 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Basel 1893 have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; FC ST. Gallen in 73%.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Blended
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
FC Basel 1893 (Home) vs FC ST. Gallen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Basel 1893
Blended
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen Form FAQs
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 13W 16D 20L in their last 49 games (1.12 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 19W 15D 15L in their last 49 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
FC Basel 1893's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 1.38 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
FC ST. Gallen have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC ST. Gallen won FC ST. Gallen 3-0 FC Basel 1893 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Basel 1893 have gone 3W 1D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC ST. Gallen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Basel 1893
3
Draws
4
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Basel 1893 have won 3, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: FC Basel 1893 1-3 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Basel 1893 see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for FC Basel 1893, 71% for FC ST. Gallen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Basel 1893) and 46% (FC ST. Gallen).
On the defensive side: FC Basel 1893 have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of FC Basel 1893's games and 71% of FC ST. Gallen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Basel 1893's recent games and 46% of FC ST. Gallen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of FC Basel 1893's recent matches and 71% of FC ST. Gallen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Basel 1893 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC ST. Gallen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 beat FC ST. Gallen 2-0 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.34 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.52 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 0.82 / defence 1.09 against FC ST. Gallen attack 0.97 / defence 0.91, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 32% | Draw 27% | FC ST. Gallen 40%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual FC Basel 1893 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 55%, FC ST. Gallen 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Basel 1893 1.12 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Basel 1893 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.