FC Basel 1893 0-2 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Sion at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Basel 1893 host FC Sion at St. Jakob-Park in Super League, Championship Group - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Basel 1893 — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at St. Jakob-Park, FC Basel 1893 have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Sion stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
FC Sion's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (FC Basel 1893) versus 1.80 (FC Sion). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of FC Basel 1893: 5 wins from 8 previous clashes against 1 for FC Sion, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2026, ended 0–2 with FC Sion winning.
The historical record gives FC Basel 1893 a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC Basel 1893 trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
FC Sion trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Basel 1893 62% versus FC Sion 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Basel 1893 62% | FC Sion 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.34 xG and FC Sion 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.969 / defence 0.879 | FC Sion attack 1.090 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.428. Data: 66 FC Basel 1893 games / 66 FC Sion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 34% | Draw 31% | FC Sion 35%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | FC Sion 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
FC Basel 1893 dominate the H2H record, yet FC Sion are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, FC Sion are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Sion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Basel 1893 70% | FC Sion 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Championship Group - 34 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 34% | Draw 31% | FC Sion 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG FC Basel 1893 1.34 / FC Sion 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.969 / def 0.879 | FC Sion attack 1.090 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
1.37
FC Sion xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
FC Basel 1893 0 - 2 FC Sion.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion is a Championship Group - 34 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 34% chance of winning, FC Sion a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion?
Record (8 meetings): FC Basel 1893 5W | Draws 2 | FC Sion 1W.
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion in?
FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. FC Sion (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Basel 1893's attack rating (0.97) and FC Sion's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sion's attack versus FC Basel 1893's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
34%
2.94
31%
3.26
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
2.71
1.37
FC Sion xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
9%
11.53
9%
10.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 1.37 for FC Sion, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Basel 1893 come into this having played 71 games, going 37W 15D 19L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, FC Sion sit at 1.35 PPG from 71 outings (24W 24D 23L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five.
FC Basel 1893 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of FC Sion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Basel 1893's home form reads 20W 8D 7L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Sion have taken 0.97 points per game from 35 outings (8W 10D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.38 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Basel 1893 have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 71 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Current Season
FC Sion
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 37W 15D 19L in their last 71 games (1.77 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 24W 24D 23L in their last 71 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or FC Sion away?
FC Basel 1893's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 1.94 PPG; FC Sion away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 3 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
FC Sion go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jan 2025, when FC Basel 1893 won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Basel 1893's record when hosting FC Sion specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Basel 1893
2
Draws
3
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Basel 1893 have won 5, FC Sion have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2026, when FC Basel 1893 1-2 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Basel 1893 57%, FC Sion 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (FC Basel 1893) and 51% (FC Sion).
On the defensive side: FC Basel 1893 keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; FC Sion in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Basel 1893 play FC Sion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of FC Basel 1893's games and 60% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of FC Basel 1893's recent games and 51% of FC Sion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion tend to score early?
FC Basel 1893 have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Sion cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC Basel 1893.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sion beat FC Basel 1893 0-2 at St. Jakob-Park, Championship Group - 34, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.34 xG and FC Sion 1.37 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 0.97 / defence 0.88 against FC Sion attack 1.09 / defence 0.81, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 34% | Draw 31% | FC Sion 35%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 62%, FC Sion 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Sion's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.35. Form was overturned, with FC Sion winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Sion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.66 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.