FC Basel 1893 4-1 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Basel 1893 host FC Sion at St. Jakob-Park in Super League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 January 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Basel 1893 — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at St. Jakob-Park, FC Basel 1893 have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Sion stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sion's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 5L across 9 road games this term (1.11 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (FC Basel 1893) versus 1.40 (FC Sion). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for FC Basel 1893, 0 for FC Sion and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Basel 1893 trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
FC Sion trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Basel 1893 58% versus FC Sion 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Basel 1893 58% | FC Sion 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.56 xG and FC Sion 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.099 / defence 0.891 | FC Sion attack 0.817 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.227. Data: 52 FC Basel 1893 games / 19 FC Sion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 51% | Draw 29% | FC Sion 20%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | FC Sion 5.00. FC Basel 1893 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Basel 1893 are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: FC Basel 1893 40% | FC Sion 44% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jan 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 51% | Draw 29% | FC Sion 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG FC Basel 1893 1.56 / FC Sion 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.099 / def 0.891 | FC Sion attack 0.817 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
0.89
FC Sion xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 26 January 2025 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
FC Basel 1893 4 - 1 FC Sion.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 51% chance of winning, FC Sion a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion?
Record (3 meetings): FC Basel 1893 2W | Draws 1 | FC Sion 0W.
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion in?
FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. FC Sion (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Basel 1893's attack rating (1.10) and FC Sion's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sion's attack versus FC Basel 1893's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
51%
1.96
29%
3.40
20%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
2.46
0.89
FC Sion xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
5.13
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
4%
24.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.0 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 0.89 for FC Sion, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Basel 1893 come into this having played 19 games, going 9W 4D 6L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-D. The sample for FC Basel 1893 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Sion sit at 1.37 PPG from 19 outings (7W 5D 7L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Basel 1893 on 1.63 PPG, FC Sion on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Basel 1893's home form reads 5W 1D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Sion have taken 1.11 points per game from 9 outings (3W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 2.21 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.32 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Blended
FC Sion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 9W 4D 6L in their last 19 games (1.63 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 7W 5D 7L in their last 19 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or FC Sion away?
FC Basel 1893's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 1.78 PPG; FC Sion away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 3 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
FC Sion go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jan 2025, when FC Basel 1893 won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Basel 1893's record when hosting FC Sion specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Basel 1893
2
Draws
3
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Basel 1893 have won 5, FC Sion have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2026, when FC Basel 1893 1-2 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Basel 1893 44%, FC Sion 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (FC Basel 1893) and 44% (FC Sion).
On the defensive side: FC Basel 1893 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Sion in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Basel 1893 play FC Sion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of FC Basel 1893's recent matches and 44% of FC Sion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of FC Basel 1893's recent games and 44% of FC Sion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion tend to score early?
FC Basel 1893 have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Basel 1893 run riot with a 4-1 hammering of FC Sion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 beat FC Sion 4-1 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.56 xG and FC Sion 0.89 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 1.10 / defence 0.89 against FC Sion attack 0.82 / defence 1.01, drawn from 52/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 51% | Draw 29% | FC Sion 20%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 58%, FC Sion 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
FC Sion's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Basel 1893 1.63 PPG, FC Sion 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Basel 1893 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. FC Sion (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.