BSC Young Boys 3-3 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BSC Young Boys at 39%, yet in-form FC Sion provide a compelling counter-argument — this BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
BSC Young Boys welcome FC Sion to Stadion Wankdorf in Super League (Championship Group - 38). Kick-off is Sunday 17 May 2026 at 16:30 UK time.
Form Guide
BSC Young Boys — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, BSC Young Boys have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, FC Sion have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
FC Sion away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. FC Sion's 2.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of BSC Young Boys's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for BSC Young Boys, 4 for FC Sion and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.1 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Feb 2026, ended BSC Young Boys 1–3 FC Sion — a FC Sion win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
BSC Young Boys in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
FC Sion in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 52%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — BSC Young Boys 64% and FC Sion 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BSC Young Boys 65% | FC Sion 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BSC Young Boys 1.62 xG and FC Sion 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BSC Young Boys attack 1.147 / defence 0.948 | FC Sion attack 1.082 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.427. Data: built from BSC Young Boys's last 66 games and FC Sion's last 66.
Result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 39% | Draw 28% | FC Sion 33%. Fair-value odds: BSC Young Boys 2.55 | Draw 3.55 | FC Sion 3.07. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.62 / 1.47) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BSC Young Boys at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Sion (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BSC Young Boys offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (BSC Young Boys's last 10 home games and FC Sion's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: BSC Young Boys 70% (last 10 home games) | FC Sion 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Championship Group - 38 | Venue: Stadion Wankdorf • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 39% | Draw 28% | FC Sion 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG BSC Young Boys 1.62 / FC Sion 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: BSC Young Boys attack 1.147 / def 0.948 | FC Sion attack 1.082 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: BSC Young Boys (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
BSC Young Boys xG
Expected Goals
1.47
FC Sion xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion FAQs
What time does BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion kick off?
BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Stadion Wankdorf.
What was the final score in BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion?
BSC Young Boys 3 - 3 FC Sion.
Where is BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wankdorf.
What competition is BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion part of?
BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion is a Super League fixture (Championship Group - 38) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives BSC Young Boys a 39% chance of winning, FC Sion a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making BSC Young Boys the favourite.
Will both teams score in BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both BSC Young Boys and FC Sion will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from BSC Young Boys's attack rating (1.15) and FC Sion's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sion's attack versus BSC Young Boys's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from BSC Young Boys's last 66 games and FC Sion's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BSC Young Boys Win
39%
2.55
28%
3.55
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
BSC Young Boys xG
Total xG
3.08
1.47
FC Sion xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
9%
11.02
6%
15.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.9 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are BSC Young Boys and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for BSC Young Boys and 1.47 for FC Sion, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
BSC Young Boys's recent record stands at 32W 19D 24L from 75 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five.
FC Sion, meanwhile, have gone 27W 25D 23L across 75 games — 1.41 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: BSC Young Boys on 1.53 PPG, FC Sion on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, BSC Young Boys have managed 22W 8D 7L from their last 37 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — BSC Young Boys are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FC Sion's away record stands at 10W 10D 17L across their last 37 away games, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BSC Young Boys come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
BSC Young Boys are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.43 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BSC Young Boys have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BSC Young Boys
Current Season
FC Sion
Current Season
BSC Young Boys (Home) vs FC Sion (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
BSC Young Boys
Current Season
FC Sion
Current Season
❓ BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion Form FAQs
What form are BSC Young Boys and FC Sion in coming into this match?
BSC Young Boys have gone 32W 19D 24L in their last 75 games (1.53 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 27W 25D 23L in their last 75 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BSC Young Boys at home or FC Sion away?
BSC Young Boys's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BSC Young Boys at home: 2.00 PPG; FC Sion away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 26 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Mar 2023, when BSC Young Boys won BSC Young Boys 4-0 FC Sion.
BSC Young Boys's record when hosting FC Sion specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
BSC Young Boys
2
Draws
4
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between BSC Young Boys and FC Sion?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, BSC Young Boys have won 4, FC Sion have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did BSC Young Boys and FC Sion last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 July 2026: BSC Young Boys 4-2 FC Sion.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BSC Young Boys 68%, FC Sion 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for BSC Young Boys and 51% for FC Sion. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Sion in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BSC Young Boys home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in BSC Young Boys and FC Sion matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of BSC Young Boys's games and 57% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are BSC Young Boys and FC Sion matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of BSC Young Boys's matches and 51% of FC Sion's.
Do BSC Young Boys and FC Sion matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of BSC Young Boys's recent matches and 76% of FC Sion's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BSC Young Boys and FC Sion share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Wankdorf, Championship Group - 38, as BSC Young Boys and FC Sion drew 3-3 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BSC Young Boys 1.62 xG and FC Sion 1.47 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. BSC Young Boys beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Sion outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BSC Young Boys attack 1.15 / defence 0.95 against FC Sion attack 1.08 / defence 0.83, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BSC Young Boys 39% | Draw 28% | FC Sion 33%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BSC Young Boys 65%, FC Sion 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
FC Sion's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BSC Young Boys 1.53 PPG, FC Sion 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Sion (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.