Vasteras SK FK 0-3 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasteras SK FK at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasteras SK FK vs Utsikten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Utsikten travel to Iver Arena to take on Vasteras SK FK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 April 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vasteras SK FK stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Vasteras SK FK at Iver Arena this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Iver Arena this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.52 xG and Utsikten 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.932 / defence 1.007 | Utsikten attack 0.705 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.322. Data: 32 Vasteras SK FK games / 2 Utsikten games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 51% | Draw 26% | Utsikten 23%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Utsikten 4.35. Vasteras SK FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasteras SK FK at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Iver Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 51% | Draw 26% | Utsikten 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.52 / Utsikten 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.932 / def 1.007 | Utsikten attack 0.705 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Utsikten xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Utsikten kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Utsikten kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Iver Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Utsikten?
Vasteras SK FK 0 - 3 Utsikten.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at Iver Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Utsikten part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Utsikten is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 51% chance of winning, Utsikten a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Utsikten will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Utsikten?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Utsikten in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Vasteras SK FK home split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vasteras SK FK's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Utsikten's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Utsikten's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
51%
1.97
26%
3.86
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.46
0.94
Utsikten xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
5%
19.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.2 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 0.94 for Utsikten, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Utsikten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
Utsikten
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasteras SK FK and Utsikten runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Aug 2023, when Utsikten won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting Utsikten specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Vasteras SK FK
1
Draws
2
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Utsikten?
From 6 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 3, Utsikten have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Utsikten last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Vasteras SK FK 3-0 Utsikten.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and Utsikten?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Utsikten run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Vasteras SK FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utsikten beat Vasteras SK FK 0-3 at Iver Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.52 xG and Utsikten 0.94 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Vasteras SK FK fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Utsikten outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.93 / defence 1.01 against Utsikten attack 0.70 / defence 1.05, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 51% | Draw 26% | Utsikten 23%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Utsikten win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.