Vasalund 1-2 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasalund at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasalund vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 20 as Vasalund welcome GIF Sundsvall to Skytteholms IP. Kick-off is set for Monday 13 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Vasalund have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vasalund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasalund at Skytteholms IP this season: 4W 1D 4L from 9 home games — 1.44 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.44 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Vasalund are significantly better at Skytteholms IP than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIF Sundsvall stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 2W 2D 4L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. GIF Sundsvall's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Vasalund's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Vasalund, 1 for GIF Sundsvall and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2021, ended 2–3 with GIF Sundsvall winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Vasalund in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
GIF Sundsvall in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasalund 44% versus GIF Sundsvall 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasalund 56% | GIF Sundsvall 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasalund 1.45 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasalund attack 1.173 / defence 1.515 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.744 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.089. Data: 19 Vasalund games / 18 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasalund 42% | Draw 26% | GIF Sundsvall 32%. Fair-value odds: Vasalund 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | GIF Sundsvall 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vasalund as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form GIF Sundsvall (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasalund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Vasalund 44% | GIF Sundsvall 38%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasalund vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Skytteholms IP • Kick-off: Monday 13 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasalund 42% | Draw 26% | GIF Sundsvall 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Vasalund 1.45 / GIF Sundsvall 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Vasalund attack 1.173 / def 1.515 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.744 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Vasalund (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Vasalund xG
Expected Goals
1.23
GIF Sundsvall xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasalund vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Vasalund vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 13 September 2021 at Skytteholms IP.
What was the final score in Vasalund vs GIF Sundsvall?
Vasalund 1 - 2 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Vasalund vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Skytteholms IP.
What competition is Vasalund vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Vasalund vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasalund vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Vasalund a 42% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Vasalund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasalund vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Vasalund and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Vasalund vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasalund and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (1 meetings): Vasalund 0W | Draws 0 | GIF Sundsvall 1W.
What form are Vasalund and GIF Sundsvall in?
Vasalund (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vasalund's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against GIF Sundsvall's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Vasalund's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasalund Win
42%
2.37
26%
3.88
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Vasalund xG
Total xG
2.68
1.23
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
12%
8.08
8%
13.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasalund vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Vasalund and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Vasalund and 1.23 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasalund vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, Vasalund have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 5W 3D 10L record — L-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Vasalund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall's form line: 8W 4D 6L from 18 games, 1.56 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-L. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, GIF Sundsvall are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vasalund.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Vasalund have posted 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (4W 0D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Vasalund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GIF Sundsvall's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasalund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vasalund are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.44 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasalund
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasalund and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Vasalund have gone 5W 3D 10L in their last 18 games (1.00 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 8W 4D 6L in their last 18 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasalund at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Vasalund's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasalund at home: 1.50 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Vasalund or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasalund have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasalund and GIF Sundsvall runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Vasalund
0
Draws
2
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasalund and GIF Sundsvall?
From 2 meetings on record, Vasalund have won 0, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasalund and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2021, when Vasalund 1-2 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between Vasalund and GIF Sundsvall?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vasalund see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
GIF Sundsvall tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasalund 38%, GIF Sundsvall 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Vasalund and 12% for GIF Sundsvall.
On the defensive side: Vasalund have failed to score in 38% of games; GIF Sundsvall in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasalund home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasalund play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Vasalund's recent matches and 38% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasalund vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vasalund's recent games and 12% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasalund and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Vasalund have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as GIF Sundsvall defy the odds to beat Vasalund 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Vasalund 1-2 at Skytteholms IP, Regular Season - 20, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasalund 1.45 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.23 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasalund attack 1.17 / defence 1.51 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.74 / defence 1.10, drawn from 19/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasalund 42% | Draw 26% | GIF Sundsvall 32%, with Vasalund to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual GIF Sundsvall win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasalund 56%, GIF Sundsvall 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasalund's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, GIF Sundsvall arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.