Vasalund 3-1 Falkenbergs FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasalund at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasalund vs Falkenbergs FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vasalund and Falkenbergs FF meet at Skytteholms IP in Superettan, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 August 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vasalund have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vasalund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vasalund have posted 3W 1D 3L at Skytteholms IP — 1.43 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.43 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Vasalund are significantly better at Skytteholms IP than their overall form suggests.
Falkenbergs FF (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Falkenbergs FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Falkenbergs FF away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vasalund lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2021, ended 3–0 with Vasalund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Vasalund half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Falkenbergs FF half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasalund 47% versus Falkenbergs FF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasalund 60% | Falkenbergs FF 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasalund 1.48 xG and Falkenbergs FF 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasalund attack 0.944 / defence 1.272 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.717 / defence 1.404. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.063. Falkenbergs FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.404 — this is suppressing Vasalund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Vasalund games / 15 Falkenbergs FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasalund 49% | Draw 26% | Falkenbergs FF 25%. Fair-value odds: Vasalund 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Falkenbergs FF 4.00. Vasalund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasalund are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vasalund if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vasalund 29% | Falkenbergs FF 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasalund vs Falkenbergs FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Skytteholms IP • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasalund 49% | Draw 26% | Falkenbergs FF 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Vasalund 1.48 / Falkenbergs FF 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Vasalund attack 0.944 / def 1.272 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.717 / def 1.404 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Vasalund (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Vasalund xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Falkenbergs FF xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasalund vs Falkenbergs FF kick off?
Vasalund vs Falkenbergs FF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Skytteholms IP.
What was the final score in Vasalund vs Falkenbergs FF?
Vasalund 3 - 1 Falkenbergs FF.
Where is Vasalund vs Falkenbergs FF being played?
The match is being played at Skytteholms IP.
What competition is Vasalund vs Falkenbergs FF part of?
Vasalund vs Falkenbergs FF is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasalund vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our statistical model gives Vasalund a 49% chance of winning, Falkenbergs FF a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Vasalund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasalund vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Vasalund and Falkenbergs FF will score (BTTS).
Will Vasalund vs Falkenbergs FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasalund and Falkenbergs FF?
Record (1 meetings): Vasalund 1W | Draws 0 | Falkenbergs FF 0W.
What form are Vasalund and Falkenbergs FF in?
Vasalund (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vasalund's attack at 0.94x the league average against Falkenbergs FF's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Falkenbergs FF's attack (0.72x) against Vasalund's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasalund Win
49%
2.04
26%
3.81
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Vasalund xG
Total xG
2.45
0.97
Falkenbergs FF xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
6%
17.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.4 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasalund vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Vasalund and Falkenbergs FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Vasalund and 0.97 for Falkenbergs FF, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasalund vs Falkenbergs FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vasalund come into this having played 15 games, going 4W 1D 10L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Vasalund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Falkenbergs FF sit at 0.80 PPG from 15 outings (3W 3D 9L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Falkenbergs FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.87 PPG for Vasalund against 0.80 for Falkenbergs FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Vasalund's home form reads 3W 1D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.87 PPG overall — Vasalund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Falkenbergs FF have taken 0.57 points per game from 7 outings (1W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasalund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vasalund are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Falkenbergs FF are on 0.93 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Falkenbergs FF in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasalund
Blended
Falkenbergs FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasalund and Falkenbergs FF in coming into this match?
Vasalund have gone 4W 1D 10L in their last 15 games (0.87 PPG), while Falkenbergs FF have gone 3W 3D 9L in their last 15 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasalund at home or Falkenbergs FF away?
Vasalund's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasalund at home: 1.43 PPG; Falkenbergs FF away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Vasalund
0
Draws
0
Falkenbergs FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasalund and Falkenbergs FF?
From 2 meetings on record, Vasalund have won 2, Falkenbergs FF have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasalund and Falkenbergs FF last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2021, when Vasalund 3-1 Falkenbergs FF.
Who has won more matches between Vasalund and Falkenbergs FF?
Vasalund have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vasalund see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Falkenbergs FF see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasalund 29%, Falkenbergs FF 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Vasalund) and 57% (Falkenbergs FF).
On the defensive side: Vasalund have failed to score in 43% of games; Falkenbergs FF in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasalund home games / Falkenbergs FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasalund play Falkenbergs FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Vasalund's recent matches and 57% of Falkenbergs FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasalund vs Falkenbergs FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Vasalund's recent games and 57% of Falkenbergs FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Vasalund cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Falkenbergs FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasalund beat Falkenbergs FF 3-1 at Skytteholms IP, Regular Season - 16, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasalund 1.48 xG and Falkenbergs FF 0.97 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Vasalund beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasalund attack 0.94 / defence 1.27 against Falkenbergs FF attack 0.72 / defence 1.40, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasalund 49% | Draw 26% | Falkenbergs FF 25%, with Vasalund to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasalund 60%, Falkenbergs FF 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasalund's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasalund 0.87 PPG, Falkenbergs FF 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasalund win broke the near-deadlock. Vasalund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Falkenbergs FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.