Varbergs BoIS FC 0-1 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Varbergs BoIS FC vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Varberg Energi Arena plays host to Varbergs BoIS FC versus IK brage in Superettan, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 22 September 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Varbergs BoIS FC have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Varbergs BoIS FC at Varberg Energi Arena this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
IK brage's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IK brage away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Varbergs BoIS FC, 1.30 for IK brage — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Varbergs BoIS FC lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with IK brage winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Varbergs BoIS FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
IK brage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 55% versus IK brage 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 60% | IK brage 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 0.99 xG and IK brage 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.007 / defence 1.226 | IK brage attack 0.784 / defence 0.716. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.214. IK brage's defence strength of 0.716 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 23 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 53 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 30% | Draw 31% | IK brage 39%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | IK brage 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IK brage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Varbergs BoIS FC 60% | IK brage 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 30% | Draw 31% | IK brage 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 0.99 / IK brage 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.007 / def 1.226 | IK brage attack 0.784 / def 0.716 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: IK brage (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
1.17
IK brage xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs IK brage kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs IK brage kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs IK brage?
Varbergs BoIS FC 0 - 1 IK brage.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs IK brage part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 30% chance of winning, IK brage a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and IK brage?
Record (1 meetings): Varbergs BoIS FC 0W | Draws 0 | IK brage 1W.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and IK brage in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. IK brage (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Varbergs BoIS FC's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against IK brage's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. Flip it around — IK brage's attack (0.78x) against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 23/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
30%
3.33
31%
3.22
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
2.16
1.17
IK brage xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
9%
10.69
14%
6.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 13.5 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.17 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Varbergs BoIS FC come into this having played 53 games, going 10W 12D 31L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, IK brage sit at 1.42 PPG from 53 outings (21W 12D 20L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IK brage carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Varbergs BoIS FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Varbergs BoIS FC's home form reads 5W 7D 14L across 26 games on their own ground, a 0.85 PPG return.
Away from home, IK brage have taken 0.85 points per game from 26 outings (5W 7D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IK brage's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.21 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and IK brage in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 10W 12D 31L in their last 53 games (0.79 PPG), while IK brage have gone 21W 12D 20L in their last 53 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or IK brage away?
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record (0.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 0.85 PPG; IK brage away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Varbergs BoIS FC or IK brage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Varbergs BoIS FC have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, IK brage in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against IK brage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Varbergs BoIS FC
2
Draws
3
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and IK brage?
From 6 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 1, IK brage have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Varbergs BoIS FC 3-2 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
IK brage see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 54%, IK brage 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 31% (IK brage).
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC have failed to score in 38% of games; IK brage in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Varbergs BoIS FC play IK brage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent matches and 38% of IK brage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Varbergs BoIS FC vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent games and 31% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and IK brage tend to score early?
Varbergs BoIS FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, IK brage in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IK brage edge out Varbergs BoIS FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Varbergs BoIS FC 0-1 at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 0.99 xG and IK brage 1.17 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Varbergs BoIS FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.23 against IK brage attack 0.78 / defence 0.72, drawn from 23/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 30% | Draw 31% | IK brage 39%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 60%, IK brage 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IK brage's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, IK brage arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. IK brage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.