Utsikten 1-1 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utsikten at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Utsikten vs AFC Eskilstuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Utsikten host AFC Eskilstuna at Bravida Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 2 October 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Utsikten — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Utsikten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Utsikten have posted 7W 2D 1L at Bravida Arena — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Utsikten are significantly better at Bravida Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AFC Eskilstuna stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Eskilstuna's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Utsikten 1.40 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Utsikten have won 0, AFC Eskilstuna 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Utsikten in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
AFC Eskilstuna in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utsikten 54% versus AFC Eskilstuna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utsikten 54% | AFC Eskilstuna 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utsikten 2.08 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utsikten attack 1.250 / defence 0.896 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.627 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.630 / away 1.287. Data: 54 Utsikten games / 54 AFC Eskilstuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utsikten 68% | Draw 21% | AFC Eskilstuna 11%. Fair-value odds: Utsikten 1.47 | Draw 4.76 | AFC Eskilstuna 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Utsikten (68%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Utsikten at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Utsikten 70% | AFC Eskilstuna 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utsikten vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Monday 2 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utsikten 68% | Draw 21% | AFC Eskilstuna 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 46% | xG Utsikten 2.08 / AFC Eskilstuna 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Utsikten attack 1.250 / def 0.896 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.627 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.630 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Utsikten xG
Expected Goals
0.72
AFC Eskilstuna xG
46%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utsikten vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
Utsikten vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 2 October 2023 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in Utsikten vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Utsikten 1 - 1 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is Utsikten vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is Utsikten vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
Utsikten vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Utsikten vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives Utsikten a 68% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 11% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utsikten vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Utsikten and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will Utsikten vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and AFC Eskilstuna?
Record (3 meetings): Utsikten 0W | Draws 1 | AFC Eskilstuna 2W.
What form are Utsikten and AFC Eskilstuna in?
Utsikten (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Utsikten's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against AFC Eskilstuna's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Eskilstuna's attack versus Utsikten's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 1-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
68%
1.47
21%
4.66
11%
9.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Utsikten xG
Total xG
2.81
0.72
AFC Eskilstuna xG
1.47
68%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
9.39
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
12%
8.03
Win to Nil
33%
3.04
1%
75.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utsikten vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Utsikten and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Utsikten and 0.72 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Utsikten vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Utsikten's recent record stands at 24W 11D 19L from 54 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Utsikten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AFC Eskilstuna, meanwhile, have gone 18W 11D 25L across 54 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Utsikten on 1.54 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Utsikten have managed 12W 8D 7L from 27 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AFC Eskilstuna's away record stands at 6W 6D 15L across 27 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utsikten come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Utsikten are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; AFC Eskilstuna are on 1.28 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utsikten
Blended
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utsikten and AFC Eskilstuna in coming into this match?
Utsikten have gone 24W 11D 19L in their last 54 games (1.54 PPG), while AFC Eskilstuna have gone 18W 11D 25L in their last 54 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utsikten at home or AFC Eskilstuna away?
Utsikten's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utsikten at home: 1.63 PPG; AFC Eskilstuna away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Utsikten's record when hosting AFC Eskilstuna specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Utsikten
2
Draws
2
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 4 meetings on record, Utsikten have won 0, AFC Eskilstuna have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Utsikten and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 2 October 2023, when Utsikten 1-1 AFC Eskilstuna.
Who has won more matches between Utsikten and AFC Eskilstuna?
AFC Eskilstuna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utsikten 63%, AFC Eskilstuna 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Utsikten) and 52% (AFC Eskilstuna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AFC Eskilstuna in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utsikten home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utsikten play AFC Eskilstuna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Utsikten's games and 48% of AFC Eskilstuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utsikten vs AFC Eskilstuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Utsikten's matches and 52% of AFC Eskilstuna's.
Do Utsikten and AFC Eskilstuna tend to score early?
Utsikten have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, AFC Eskilstuna in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Utsikten and AFC Eskilstuna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utsikten and AFC Eskilstuna finished level at 1-1 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 2.08 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 0.72 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Utsikten fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 1.25 / defence 0.90 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.63 / defence 1.02, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utsikten 68% | Draw 21% | AFC Eskilstuna 11%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 54%, AFC Eskilstuna 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utsikten's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utsikten 1.54 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Utsikten (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.