Trelleborg 2-0 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trelleborg host Orgryte IS at Vångavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 17 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Trelleborg — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trelleborg have posted 5W 1D 4L at Vångavallen — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Orgryte IS have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Orgryte IS's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Trelleborg at 1.20 PPG versus Orgryte IS's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Trelleborg have won 2, Orgryte IS 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2022, ended 2–1 with Trelleborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trelleborg 67% and Orgryte IS 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 58% | Orgryte IS 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 0.98 xG and Orgryte IS 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.879 / defence 1.074 | Orgryte IS attack 0.909 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.071. Data: 32 Trelleborg games / 32 Orgryte IS games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 33% | Draw 31% | Orgryte IS 36%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Orgryte IS 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 41% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. This conflicts with form data: Trelleborg 80% | Orgryte IS 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Monday 17 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 33% | Draw 31% | Orgryte IS 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Trelleborg 0.98 / Orgryte IS 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.879 / def 1.074 | Orgryte IS attack 0.909 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Orgryte IS xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 17 April 2023 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS?
Trelleborg 2 - 0 Orgryte IS.
Where is Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS part of?
Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 33% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Trelleborg and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Orgryte IS?
Record (4 meetings): Trelleborg 2W | Draws 2 | Orgryte IS 0W.
What form are Trelleborg and Orgryte IS in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Orgryte IS (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Trelleborg's attack at 0.88x the league average against Orgryte IS's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
33%
3.02
31%
3.27
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.03
1.04
Orgryte IS xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
12%
8.57
14%
7.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 13.7 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.04 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Trelleborg have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 24W 16D 20L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Orgryte IS's form line: 18W 25D 17L from 60 games, 1.32 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trelleborg on 1.47 PPG, Orgryte IS on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Trelleborg have posted 1.70 PPG from 30 outings (15W 6D 9L).
On the road, Orgryte IS have gone 10W 10D 10L from 30 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Trelleborg are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.45 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Orgryte IS in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Current Season
Orgryte IS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 24W 16D 20L in their last 60 games (1.47 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 18W 25D 17L in their last 60 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Orgryte IS away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.70 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trelleborg and Orgryte IS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 25 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Orgryte IS go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Trelleborg's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Trelleborg
2
Draws
2
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Orgryte IS?
From 10 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 6, Orgryte IS have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 25 September 2025, when Trelleborg 0-2 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Orgryte IS?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Trelleborg at 67%, Orgryte IS at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Trelleborg and 57% for Orgryte IS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Orgryte IS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Trelleborg's games and 67% of Orgryte IS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Trelleborg's matches and 57% of Orgryte IS's.
Do Trelleborg and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trelleborg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Orgryte IS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Orgryte IS 2-0 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 0.98 xG and Orgryte IS 1.04 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Trelleborg beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Orgryte IS landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.88 / defence 1.07 against Orgryte IS attack 0.91 / defence 0.88, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 33% | Draw 31% | Orgryte IS 36%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Trelleborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 58%, Orgryte IS 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.47 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trelleborg win broke the near-deadlock. Trelleborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.