Trelleborg 0-1 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs AFC Eskilstuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Trelleborg and AFC Eskilstuna meet at Vångavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 6 September 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Trelleborg's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Vångavallen this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AFC Eskilstuna (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Eskilstuna away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Trelleborg against 1.20 for AFC Eskilstuna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Trelleborg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, AFC Eskilstuna in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Trelleborg, 2 for AFC Eskilstuna and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jul 2022, ended 0–1 with AFC Eskilstuna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Trelleborg — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
AFC Eskilstuna — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trelleborg 67% and AFC Eskilstuna 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 57% | AFC Eskilstuna 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.90 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 1.140 / defence 1.159 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.963 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.372. AFC Eskilstuna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Trelleborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Trelleborg games / 51 AFC Eskilstuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 45% | Draw 25% | AFC Eskilstuna 30%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | AFC Eskilstuna 3.33. Trelleborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trelleborg at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trelleborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Trelleborg 70% | AFC Eskilstuna 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Tuesday 6 Sep 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 45% | Draw 25% | AFC Eskilstuna 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Trelleborg 1.90 / AFC Eskilstuna 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 1.140 / def 1.159 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.963 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.53
AFC Eskilstuna xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
Trelleborg vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 6 September 2022 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Trelleborg 0 - 1 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is Trelleborg vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
Trelleborg vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 45% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Trelleborg and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and AFC Eskilstuna?
Record (3 meetings): Trelleborg 1W | Draws 0 | AFC Eskilstuna 2W.
What form are Trelleborg and AFC Eskilstuna in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Trelleborg's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against AFC Eskilstuna's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. Flip it around — AFC Eskilstuna's attack (0.96x) against Trelleborg's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
45%
2.21
25%
4.04
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
3.44
1.53
AFC Eskilstuna xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.13
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
15%
6.71
Win to Nil
10%
10.23
4%
22.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.53 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, Trelleborg have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 20W 16D 15L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AFC Eskilstuna's form line: 20W 10D 21L from 51 games, 1.37 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Trelleborg against 1.37 for AFC Eskilstuna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Trelleborg have posted 1.80 PPG from 25 outings (13W 6D 6L).
On the road, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 5W 5D 15L from 25 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AFC Eskilstuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trelleborg are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; AFC Eskilstuna are on 1.57 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Blended
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and AFC Eskilstuna in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 20W 16D 15L in their last 51 games (1.49 PPG), while AFC Eskilstuna have gone 20W 10D 21L in their last 51 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or AFC Eskilstuna away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.80 PPG; AFC Eskilstuna away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trelleborg won 4-0 on 26 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trelleborg have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against AFC Eskilstuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Trelleborg
0
Draws
4
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 6 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 2, AFC Eskilstuna have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2023, when Trelleborg 2-0 AFC Eskilstuna.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and AFC Eskilstuna?
AFC Eskilstuna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 64%, AFC Eskilstuna 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Trelleborg and 60% for AFC Eskilstuna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AFC Eskilstuna in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play AFC Eskilstuna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Trelleborg's games and 64% of AFC Eskilstuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trelleborg vs AFC Eskilstuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Trelleborg's matches and 60% of AFC Eskilstuna's.
Do Trelleborg and AFC Eskilstuna tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, AFC Eskilstuna in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AFC Eskilstuna defy the odds to beat Trelleborg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Eskilstuna beat Trelleborg 0-1 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 22, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.90 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.53 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Trelleborg fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 1.14 / defence 1.16 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.96 / defence 1.22, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 45% | Draw 25% | AFC Eskilstuna 30%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual AFC Eskilstuna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 57%, AFC Eskilstuna 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.49 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Eskilstuna win broke the near-deadlock. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.