Skövde AIK 2-0 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 41%, yet in-form Skövde AIK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Skövde AIK and Landskrona BoIS meet at Södermalms IP in Superettan, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Skövde AIK (all games): 1W 1D 0L across 2 Superettan fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Skövde AIK have played only a handful of Superettan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Landskrona BoIS have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Landskrona BoIS away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Skövde AIK. A 1.00 PPG lead over Landskrona BoIS (2.00 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Skövde AIK 1.30 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Skövde AIK attack 0.880 / defence 1.150 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.922 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.390. Data: 1 Skövde AIK games / 31 Landskrona BoIS games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Skövde AIK 33% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 41%. Fair-value odds: Skövde AIK 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Landskrona BoIS 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Skövde AIK (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Södermalms IP • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Skövde AIK 33% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Skövde AIK 1.30 / Landskrona BoIS 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Skövde AIK attack 0.880 / def 1.150 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.922 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Skövde AIK xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Landskrona BoIS xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Södermalms IP.
What was the final score in Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Skövde AIK 2 - 0 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Södermalms IP.
What competition is Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Skövde AIK a 33% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Skövde AIK and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Landskrona BoIS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Skövde AIK and Landskrona BoIS in?
Skövde AIK (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-D. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Skövde AIK's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (0.92x) against Skövde AIK's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
33%
3.00
25%
3.95
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Skövde AIK xG
Total xG
2.77
1.47
Landskrona BoIS xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
8%
13.09
11%
8.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Skövde AIK and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Skövde AIK and 1.47 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 2 outings, Skövde AIK have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 1W 1D 0L record — W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Skövde AIK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Landskrona BoIS's form line: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L. It's still early in the season for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Skövde AIK are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Landskrona BoIS.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Skövde AIK are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Skövde AIK have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Skövde AIK
Early Season
Landskrona BoIS
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Skövde AIK and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Skövde AIK have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Skövde AIK or Landskrona BoIS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Landskrona BoIS in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 October 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Landskrona BoIS won 4-1 on 4 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Skövde AIK have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Landskrona BoIS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Skövde AIK
1
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Landskrona BoIS?
From 6 meetings on record, Skövde AIK have won 3, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Skövde AIK and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2024, when Landskrona BoIS 4-1 Skövde AIK.
Who has won more matches between Skövde AIK and Landskrona BoIS?
Skövde AIK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Skövde AIK home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Skövde AIK play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Skövde AIK's recent matches and 50% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Skövde AIK's recent games and 50% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Skövde AIK and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Skövde AIK have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Skövde AIK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Landskrona BoIS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Skövde AIK beat Landskrona BoIS 2-0 at Södermalms IP, Regular Season - 2, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Skövde AIK 1.30 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.47 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Skövde AIK attack 0.88 / defence 1.15 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.92 / defence 1.01, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Skövde AIK 33% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 41%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Skövde AIK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Skövde AIK 50%, Landskrona BoIS 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Skövde AIK arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Landskrona BoIS managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.