Skövde AIK 4-2 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Skövde AIK at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Skövde AIK and Landskrona BoIS meet at Södermalms IP in Superettan, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 27 September 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Skövde AIK (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Skövde AIK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Södermalms IP, Skövde AIK have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Södermalms IP.
Landskrona BoIS have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Skövde AIK against 1.60 for Landskrona BoIS. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Skövde AIK, 1 for Landskrona BoIS and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 0–2 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Skövde AIK — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Landskrona BoIS — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Skövde AIK 55% versus Landskrona BoIS 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Skövde AIK 53% | Landskrona BoIS 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Skövde AIK 1.86 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Skövde AIK attack 1.100 / defence 0.905 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.021 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.272. Data: 53 Skövde AIK games / 53 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Skövde AIK 52% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 23%. Fair-value odds: Skövde AIK 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Landskrona BoIS 4.35. Skövde AIK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Skövde AIK at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Skövde AIK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Skövde AIK 40% | Landskrona BoIS 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Södermalms IP • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Sep 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Skövde AIK 52% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Skövde AIK 1.86 / Landskrona BoIS 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Skövde AIK attack 1.100 / def 0.905 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.021 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.566 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Skövde AIK (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Skövde AIK xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Landskrona BoIS xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 27 September 2023 at Södermalms IP.
What was the final score in Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Skövde AIK 4 - 2 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Södermalms IP.
What competition is Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Skövde AIK a 52% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Skövde AIK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Skövde AIK and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (3 meetings): Skövde AIK 2W | Draws 0 | Landskrona BoIS 1W.
What form are Skövde AIK and Landskrona BoIS in?
Skövde AIK (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Skövde AIK's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (1.02x) against Skövde AIK's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Skövde AIK Win
52%
1.91
25%
4.06
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Skövde AIK xG
Total xG
3.04
1.18
Landskrona BoIS xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
16%
6.44
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
4%
28.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.5 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Skövde AIK and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Skövde AIK and 1.18 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Skövde AIK have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 16W 15D 22L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Skövde AIK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS's form line: 21W 15D 17L from 53 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Skövde AIK against 1.47 for Landskrona BoIS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Skövde AIK have posted 1.42 PPG from 26 outings (9W 10D 7L).
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 7W 7D 12L from 26 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Skövde AIK are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.34 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS in 62%.
Last 53 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Skövde AIK
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Skövde AIK and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Skövde AIK have gone 16W 15D 22L in their last 53 games (1.19 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 21W 15D 17L in their last 53 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Skövde AIK at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Skövde AIK's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Skövde AIK at home: 1.42 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Skövde AIK or Landskrona BoIS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Landskrona BoIS in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 October 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Landskrona BoIS won 4-1 on 4 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Skövde AIK have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Landskrona BoIS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Skövde AIK
1
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Landskrona BoIS?
From 6 meetings on record, Skövde AIK have won 3, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Skövde AIK and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2024, when Landskrona BoIS 4-1 Skövde AIK.
Who has won more matches between Skövde AIK and Landskrona BoIS?
Skövde AIK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Skövde AIK 54%, Landskrona BoIS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Skövde AIK) and 54% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Skövde AIK keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Landskrona BoIS in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Skövde AIK home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Skövde AIK play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Skövde AIK's recent matches and 50% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Skövde AIK's recent games and 54% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Skövde AIK and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Skövde AIK have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Skövde AIK cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Landskrona BoIS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Skövde AIK beat Landskrona BoIS 4-2 at Södermalms IP, Regular Season - 24, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Skövde AIK 1.86 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.18 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Skövde AIK beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Landskrona BoIS outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Skövde AIK attack 1.10 / defence 0.91 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.02 / defence 1.08, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Skövde AIK 52% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 23%, with Skövde AIK to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Skövde AIK 53%, Landskrona BoIS 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Skövde AIK's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Skövde AIK 1.19 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Skövde AIK win broke the near-deadlock. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.