Sandviken 0-2 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandviken vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sandviken host Orgryte IS at Arena Jernvallen in Superettan, Relegation Round. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 10 November 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Orgryte IS away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandviken 1.36 xG and Orgryte IS 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandviken attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Orgryte IS attack 1.081 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.228. Data: 0 Sandviken games / 60 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandviken 33% | Draw 26% | Orgryte IS 41%. Fair-value odds: Sandviken 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Orgryte IS 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orgryte IS at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandviken vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Relegation Round | Venue: Arena Jernvallen • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Nov 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandviken 33% | Draw 26% | Orgryte IS 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Sandviken 1.36 / Orgryte IS 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Sandviken attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Orgryte IS attack 1.081 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Sandviken xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Orgryte IS xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandviken vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Sandviken vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 10 November 2022 at Arena Jernvallen.
What was the final score in Sandviken vs Orgryte IS?
Sandviken 0 - 2 Orgryte IS.
Where is Sandviken vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Arena Jernvallen.
What competition is Sandviken vs Orgryte IS part of?
Sandviken vs Orgryte IS is a Relegation Round fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sandviken vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Sandviken a 33% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandviken vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sandviken and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Sandviken vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Orgryte IS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sandviken and Orgryte IS in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Orgryte IS away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sandviken's attack at 0.85x the league average against Orgryte IS's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus Sandviken's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
33%
3.00
26%
3.83
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Sandviken xG
Total xG
2.89
1.53
Orgryte IS xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
7%
13.80
10%
9.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandviken vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sandviken and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Sandviken and 1.53 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandviken vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandviken
Pre-Season
Orgryte IS
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sandviken and Orgryte IS runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 6 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2025, when Orgryte IS won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandviken's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sandviken
1
Draws
3
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Orgryte IS?
From 6 meetings on record, Sandviken have won 2, Orgryte IS have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandviken and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 6 October 2025, when Sandviken 1-1 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Sandviken and Orgryte IS?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandviken home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Orgryte IS cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sandviken.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Sandviken 0-2 at Arena Jernvallen, Relegation Round, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.36 xG and Orgryte IS 1.53 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sandviken fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Orgryte IS attack 1.08 / defence 1.12, drawn from 0/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandviken 33% | Draw 26% | Orgryte IS 41%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.