Sandviken 2-0 Oddevold – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandviken at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandviken vs Oddevold fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Oddevold travel to Arena Jernvallen to take on Sandviken. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 June 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandviken stand at 1W 0D 1L from 2 Superettan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Sandviken haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandviken 1.81 xG and Oddevold 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandviken attack 1.109 / defence 1.035 | Oddevold attack 0.897 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.042. Oddevold bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Sandviken's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Sandviken games / 11 Oddevold games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandviken 57% | Draw 23% | Oddevold 20%. Fair-value odds: Sandviken 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Oddevold 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Sandviken (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandviken at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandviken vs Oddevold | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Arena Jernvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jun 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandviken 57% | Draw 23% | Oddevold 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Sandviken 1.81 / Oddevold 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Sandviken attack 1.109 / def 1.035 | Oddevold attack 0.897 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.042 • Poisson stance: Sandviken (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Sandviken xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Oddevold xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandviken vs Oddevold kick off?
Sandviken vs Oddevold kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 16 June 2024 at Arena Jernvallen.
What was the final score in Sandviken vs Oddevold?
Sandviken 2 - 0 Oddevold.
Where is Sandviken vs Oddevold being played?
The match is being played at Arena Jernvallen.
What competition is Sandviken vs Oddevold part of?
Sandviken vs Oddevold is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sandviken vs Oddevold?
Our statistical model gives Sandviken a 57% chance of winning, Oddevold a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sandviken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandviken vs Oddevold?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sandviken and Oddevold will score (BTTS).
Will Sandviken vs Oddevold have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Oddevold?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sandviken and Oddevold in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Sandviken (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sandviken's attack at 1.11x the league average against Oddevold's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Oddevold's attack versus Sandviken's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandviken Win
57%
1.75
23%
4.36
20%
5.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Sandviken xG
Total xG
2.77
0.97
Oddevold xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
5.01
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
16%
6.09
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
3%
30.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.9 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandviken vs Oddevold?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Sandviken and Oddevold expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Sandviken and 0.97 for Oddevold, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandviken vs Oddevold?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandviken
Pre-Season
Oddevold
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sandviken and Oddevold runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 7 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Sandviken's record when hosting Oddevold specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Sandviken
3
Draws
1
Oddevold
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Oddevold?
From 5 meetings on record, Sandviken have won 1, Oddevold have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sandviken and Oddevold last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2026, when Oddevold 2-2 Sandviken.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandviken home games / Oddevold away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Sandviken cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Oddevold.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandviken beat Oddevold 2-0 at Arena Jernvallen, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.81 xG and Oddevold 0.97 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Oddevold landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 1.11 / defence 1.03 against Oddevold attack 0.90 / defence 1.26, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandviken 57% | Draw 23% | Oddevold 20%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.