Ostersunds FK 1-0 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jamtkraft Arena plays host to Ostersunds FK versus Osters IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 1 August 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ostersunds FK's overall Superettan record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jamtkraft Arena, Ostersunds FK have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Osters IF (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osters IF away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ostersunds FK have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Osters IF in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Ostersunds FK 1W, Osters IF 3W, 3D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 7 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Osters IF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Ostersunds FK half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Osters IF half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 52% versus Osters IF 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 50% | Osters IF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 2.06 xG and Osters IF 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.118 / defence 1.015 | Osters IF attack 1.025 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.396. Osters IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.255 — this is suppressing Ostersunds FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Ostersunds FK games / 16 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 51% | Draw 22% | Osters IF 27%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 1.96 | Draw 4.55 | Osters IF 3.70. Ostersunds FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ostersunds FK at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.52 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 60% | Osters IF 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Jamtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Aug 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 51% | Draw 22% | Osters IF 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Ostersunds FK 2.06 / Osters IF 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.118 / def 1.015 | Osters IF attack 1.025 / def 1.255 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Osters IF xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 1 August 2026 at Jamtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 0 Osters IF.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Jamtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 51% chance of winning, Osters IF a 27% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Osters IF?
Record (7 meetings): Ostersunds FK 1W | Draws 3 | Osters IF 3W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Osters IF in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Osters IF (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ostersunds FK's attack rating (1.12) and Osters IF's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 2.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Osters IF's attack (1.02x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 46/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
51%
1.95
22%
4.54
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
3.52
1.45
Osters IF xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
13%
7.89
Win to Nil
12%
8.33
3%
29.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.45 for Osters IF, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ostersunds FK come into this having played 46 games, going 16W 14D 16L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Osters IF sit at 1.13 PPG from 46 outings (14W 10D 22L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Ostersunds FK against 1.13 for Osters IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ostersunds FK's home form reads 11W 6D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Ostersunds FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Osters IF have taken 0.95 points per game from 22 outings (5W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ostersunds FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.22 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Osters IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Osters IF in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 16W 14D 16L in their last 46 games (1.35 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 14W 10D 22L in their last 46 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Osters IF away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.77 PPG; Osters IF away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ostersunds FK have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Osters IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Ostersunds FK
3
Draws
3
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Osters IF?
From 8 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 2, Osters IF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Ostersunds FK 1-0 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 68%, Osters IF 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Ostersunds FK) and 46% (Osters IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Osters IF in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Osters IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Ostersunds FK's games and 54% of Osters IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 46% of Osters IF's.
Do Ostersunds FK and Osters IF tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ostersunds FK edge out Osters IF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat Osters IF 1-0 at Jamtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 2.06 xG and Osters IF 1.45 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ostersunds FK fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Osters IF landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.12 / defence 1.01 against Osters IF attack 1.02 / defence 1.25, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 51% | Draw 22% | Osters IF 27%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 50%, Osters IF 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Osters IF's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.35 PPG, Osters IF 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Osters IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.