Ostersunds FK 2-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Landskrona BoIS make the trip to Jämtkraft Arena to face Ostersunds FK in Superettan, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ostersunds FK's overall Superettan record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's home record at Jämtkraft Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Ostersunds FK are significantly better at Jämtkraft Arena than their overall form suggests.
Landskrona BoIS have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Landskrona BoIS arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ostersunds FK lead 3W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Jun 2024, ended 3–4 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Ostersunds FK — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Landskrona BoIS — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 59% versus Landskrona BoIS 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 46% | Landskrona BoIS 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.02 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.847 / defence 1.040 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.065 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.169. Data: 56 Ostersunds FK games / 56 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 28% | Draw 31% | Landskrona BoIS 41%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Landskrona BoIS 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Ostersunds FK dominate the H2H record, yet Landskrona BoIS are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Landskrona BoIS are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Ostersunds FK 50% | Landskrona BoIS 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 28% | Draw 31% | Landskrona BoIS 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.02 / Landskrona BoIS 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.847 / def 1.040 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.065 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Landskrona BoIS xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Ostersunds FK 2 - 1 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 28% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (5 meetings): Ostersunds FK 3W | Draws 1 | Landskrona BoIS 1W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 0.85x the league average against Landskrona BoIS's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (1.06x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
28%
3.58
31%
3.25
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.32
1.29
Landskrona BoIS xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
8%
13.05
15%
6.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.29 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ostersunds FK's recent record stands at 17W 19D 20L from 56 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS, meanwhile, have gone 24W 12D 20L across 56 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Ostersunds FK against 1.50 for Landskrona BoIS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ostersunds FK have managed 12W 10D 6L from 28 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Landskrona BoIS's away record stands at 11W 5D 12L across 28 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.45 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 17W 19D 20L in their last 56 games (1.25 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 24W 12D 20L in their last 56 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.64 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ostersunds FK won 4-1 on 15 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ostersunds FK have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Landskrona BoIS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS?
From 9 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 5, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Ostersunds FK 2-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 71%, Landskrona BoIS 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Ostersunds FK) and 61% (Landskrona BoIS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Ostersunds FK's games and 57% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 61% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ostersunds FK defy the odds to beat Landskrona BoIS 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat Landskrona BoIS 2-1 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.02 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.29 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Ostersunds FK beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.85 / defence 1.04 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.06 / defence 0.87, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 28% | Draw 31% | Landskrona BoIS 41%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Ostersunds FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 46%, Landskrona BoIS 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.25 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.