Ostersunds FK 1-0 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IK brage at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ostersunds FK vs IK brage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees IK brage travel to Jamtkraft Arena to take on Ostersunds FK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 October 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's home record at Jamtkraft Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Ostersunds FK are significantly better at Jamtkraft Arena than their overall form suggests.
IK brage — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, IK brage have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Ostersunds FK) versus 1.30 (IK brage). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ostersunds FK register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, IK brage in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Ostersunds FK, 4 for IK brage and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2025, ended 2–0 with Ostersunds FK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ostersunds FK trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
IK brage trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 55% versus IK brage 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 50% | IK brage 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.70 xG and IK brage 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.017 / defence 1.419 | IK brage attack 1.226 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.165. IK brage have an above-average attack strength of 1.226 — the away xG of 2.03 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Ostersunds FK games / 56 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 33% | Draw 22% | IK brage 46%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 3.03 | Draw 4.55 | IK brage 2.17. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 2.03) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IK brage as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.73 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 80% | IK brage 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Jamtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 33% | Draw 22% | IK brage 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 71% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.70 / IK brage 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.017 / def 1.419 | IK brage attack 1.226 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.575 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: IK brage (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
2.03
IK brage xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs IK brage kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs IK brage kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at Jamtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs IK brage?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 0 IK brage.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Jamtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs IK brage part of?
Ostersunds FK vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 33% chance of winning, IK brage a 46% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Ostersunds FK and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and IK brage?
Record (7 meetings): Ostersunds FK 2W | Draws 1 | IK brage 4W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and IK brage in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. IK brage (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ostersunds FK's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against IK brage's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 2.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
33%
3.06
22%
4.58
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
3.73
2.03
IK brage xG
3.06
33%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.48
Clean Sheet
13%
7.59
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
4%
23.26
8%
12.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 2.03 for IK brage, a combined total of 3.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Ostersunds FK have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 16W 16D 24L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IK brage's form line: 19W 16D 21L from 56 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ostersunds FK on 1.14 PPG, IK brage on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ostersunds FK have posted 1.61 PPG from 28 outings (12W 9D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Ostersunds FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, IK brage have gone 9W 10D 9L from 28 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.30 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and IK brage in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 16W 16D 24L in their last 56 games (1.14 PPG), while IK brage have gone 19W 16D 21L in their last 56 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or IK brage away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.61 PPG; IK brage away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 10 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
4
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and IK brage?
From 10 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 4, IK brage have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 10 September 2026, when Ostersunds FK 1-1 IK brage.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 71%, IK brage 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Ostersunds FK) and 43% (IK brage).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Ostersunds FK's games and 50% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 43% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and IK brage tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, IK brage in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ostersunds FK defy the odds to beat IK brage 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat IK brage 1-0 at Jamtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.70 xG and IK brage 2.03 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IK brage landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.02 / defence 1.42 against IK brage attack 1.23 / defence 1.06, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 33% | Draw 22% | IK brage 46%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Ostersunds FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 50%, IK brage 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
IK brage's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.14 PPG, IK brage 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. IK brage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.