Ostersunds FK 1-0 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Helsingborg at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Helsingborg travel to Jämtkraft Arena to take on Ostersunds FK. The game is scheduled for Friday 13 September 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's home record at Jämtkraft Arena: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Ostersunds FK are significantly better at Jämtkraft Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helsingborg stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Helsingborg have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Helsingborg are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Ostersunds FK, 1 for Helsingborg and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.6 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Helsingborg in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 61% versus Helsingborg 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 47% | Helsingborg 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.10 xG and Helsingborg 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.981 / defence 0.956 | Helsingborg attack 1.389 / defence 0.798. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.250. Helsingborg's defence strength of 0.798 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Helsingborg have an above-average attack strength of 1.389 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Ostersunds FK games / 51 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 24% | Draw 26% | Helsingborg 50%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Helsingborg 2.00. Helsingborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helsingborg at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helsingborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 0.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Ostersunds FK 60% | Helsingborg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Friday 13 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 24% | Draw 26% | Helsingborg 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.10 / Helsingborg 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.981 / def 0.956 | Helsingborg attack 1.389 / def 0.798 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Helsingborg xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 13 September 2024 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 0 Helsingborg.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 24% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Helsingborg?
Record (5 meetings): Ostersunds FK 2W | Draws 2 | Helsingborg 1W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Helsingborg in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Helsingborg (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ostersunds FK's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Helsingborg's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Helsingborg's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
24%
4.09
26%
3.88
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.76
1.66
Helsingborg xG
4.09
24%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
19%
5.26
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
5%
21.51
17%
6.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.5 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.66 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ostersunds FK's recent record stands at 16W 18D 17L from 51 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helsingborg, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 18L across 51 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ostersunds FK on 1.29 PPG, Helsingborg on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ostersunds FK have managed 11W 10D 4L from 25 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Ostersunds FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Helsingborg's away record stands at 9W 7D 9L across 25 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 1.22 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ostersunds FK have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Helsingborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 16W 18D 17L in their last 51 games (1.29 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 18W 15D 18L in their last 51 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Helsingborg away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.72 PPG; Helsingborg away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting Helsingborg specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Ostersunds FK
4
Draws
2
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Helsingborg?
From 9 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 3, Helsingborg have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Helsingborg 2-1 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Helsingborg?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 76%, Helsingborg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Ostersunds FK) and 52% (Helsingborg).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Helsingborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Ostersunds FK's games and 52% of Helsingborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 52% of Helsingborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and Helsingborg tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Helsingborg in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ostersunds FK defy the odds to beat Helsingborg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat Helsingborg 1-0 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.10 xG and Helsingborg 1.66 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Helsingborg landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.98 / defence 0.96 against Helsingborg attack 1.39 / defence 0.80, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 24% | Draw 26% | Helsingborg 50%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Ostersunds FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 47%, Helsingborg 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Helsingborg's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.29 PPG, Helsingborg 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Helsingborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.