Ostersunds FK 2-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 38%, yet in-form Degerfors IF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ostersunds FK vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ostersunds FK and Degerfors IF meet at Jämtkraft Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 July 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Ostersunds FK (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ostersunds FK have posted 6W 2D 2L at Jämtkraft Arena — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Ostersunds FK are significantly better at Jämtkraft Arena than their overall form suggests.
Degerfors IF's overall Superettan record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Degerfors IF have posted 2W 7D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Degerfors IF are 0.60 PPG clear of Ostersunds FK in recent Superettan fixtures (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ostersunds FK lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Degerfors IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ostersunds FK — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ostersunds FK 61% and Degerfors IF 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 46% | Degerfors IF 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.27 xG and Degerfors IF 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.958 / defence 1.041 | Degerfors IF attack 0.971 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.152. Data: 44 Ostersunds FK games / 14 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 38% | Draw 28% | Degerfors IF 33%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Degerfors IF 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ostersunds FK as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Degerfors IF (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Ostersunds FK 50% | Degerfors IF 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jul 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 38% | Draw 28% | Degerfors IF 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.27 / Degerfors IF 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.958 / def 1.041 | Degerfors IF attack 0.971 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Degerfors IF xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Degerfors IF?
Ostersunds FK 2 - 1 Degerfors IF.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Degerfors IF part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 38% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Degerfors IF?
Record (2 meetings): Ostersunds FK 0W | Draws 0 | Degerfors IF 2W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Degerfors IF in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Degerfors IF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 0.96x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.97x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 44/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
38%
2.60
28%
3.55
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.43
1.16
Degerfors IF xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
12%
8.33
9%
10.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.2 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.16 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ostersunds FK's recent record stands at 14W 16D 14L from 44 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 20L across 44 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Ostersunds FK against 1.18 for Degerfors IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ostersunds FK have managed 9W 8D 4L from 21 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 4W 7D 10L across 21 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ostersunds FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.27 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ostersunds FK have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Degerfors IF in 66%.
Last 44 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 14W 16D 14L in their last 44 games (1.32 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 14W 10D 20L in their last 44 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Degerfors IF away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.67 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ostersunds FK have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ostersunds FK
0
Draws
3
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Degerfors IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 1, Degerfors IF have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2024, when Degerfors IF 2-0 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Degerfors IF?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 76% for Ostersunds FK, 57% for Degerfors IF — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Ostersunds FK) and 48% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Degerfors IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Ostersunds FK's games and 57% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 48% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ostersunds FK edge out Degerfors IF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat Degerfors IF 2-1 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.27 xG and Degerfors IF 1.16 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.96 / defence 1.04 against Degerfors IF attack 0.97 / defence 0.93, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 38% | Draw 28% | Degerfors IF 33%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 46%, Degerfors IF 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.32 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.