Osters IF 3-0 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Osters IF at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Osters IF face Orebro SK.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Osters IF welcome Orebro SK to Visma Arena in Superettan (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 7 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Osters IF have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Osters IF's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Orebro SK — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Orebro SK's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Osters IF 1.60 PPG, Orebro SK 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Osters IF's games and 80% of Orebro SK's (from Osters IF's last 10 home games and Orebro SK's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Osters IF have won 0, Orebro SK 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Jul 2023, ended Osters IF 1–1 Orebro SK — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Osters IF trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Orebro SK trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osters IF 67% versus Orebro SK 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 60% | Orebro SK 51%). Note also that Orebro SK surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Osters IF recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 2.12 xG and Orebro SK 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 1.039 / defence 0.922 | Orebro SK attack 0.978 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.278. Orebro SK's defence rating of 1.257 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Osters IF's projected output up. Data: built from Osters IF's last 55 games and Orebro SK's last 55.
Result probabilities: Osters IF 59% | Draw 22% | Orebro SK 19%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 1.70 | Draw 4.48 | Orebro SK 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Osters IF (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.12 / 1.15) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osters IF as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Osters IF's last 10 home games and Orebro SK's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Osters IF 60% (last 10 home games) | Orebro SK 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, matchday 26 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 59% | Draw 22% | Orebro SK 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Osters IF 2.12 / Orebro SK 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 1.039 / def 0.922 | Orebro SK attack 0.978 / def 1.257 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Orebro SK xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Osters IF vs Orebro SK FAQs
What time does Osters IF vs Orebro SK kick off?
Osters IF vs Orebro SK kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Orebro SK?
Osters IF 3 - 0 Orebro SK.
Where is Osters IF vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Orebro SK part of?
Osters IF vs Orebro SK is a Superettan fixture (matchday 26) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 59% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Osters IF and Orebro SK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Osters IF vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Osters IF's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Orebro SK's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.12. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Osters IF's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Osters IF's last 55 games and Orebro SK's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
59%
1.70
22%
4.48
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Osters IF xG
Total xG
3.28
1.15
Orebro SK xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
12%
8.36
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
2%
43.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Osters IF vs Orebro SK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Osters IF and 1.15 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Orebro SK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Osters IF have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 24W 15D 16L record — W-D-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Orebro SK's form line: 17W 17D 21L from 55 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osters IF on 1.58 PPG, Orebro SK on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Osters IF have posted 1.67 PPG from their last 27 home games (13W 6D 8L).
On the road, Orebro SK have gone 6W 7D 14L from their last 27 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osters IF are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.25 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osters IF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
Osters IF (Home) vs Orebro SK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Osters IF
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
❓ Osters IF vs Orebro SK Form FAQs
What form are Osters IF and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 24W 15D 16L in their last 55 games (1.58 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 17W 17D 21L in their last 55 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Orebro SK away?
Osters IF's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.67 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Osters IF or Orebro SK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Orebro SK in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Oct 2023, when Osters IF won Osters IF 3-0 Orebro SK.
Osters IF's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Osters IF
4
Draws
1
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Osters IF vs Orebro SK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Orebro SK?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Osters IF have won 3, Orebro SK have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Orebro SK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Orebro SK 1-1 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and Orebro SK?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 63%, Orebro SK 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Osters IF and 63% for Orebro SK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orebro SK in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Osters IF vs Orebro SK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Osters IF and Orebro SK matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Osters IF's games and 56% of Orebro SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Osters IF and Orebro SK matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Osters IF's matches and 63% of Orebro SK's.
Do Osters IF and Orebro SK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Osters IF's recent matches and 74% of Orebro SK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Osters IF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Orebro SK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat Orebro SK 3-0 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 2.12 xG and Orebro SK 1.15 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Osters IF beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Orebro SK landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 1.04 / defence 0.92 against Orebro SK attack 0.98 / defence 1.26, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 59% | Draw 22% | Orebro SK 19%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 60%, Orebro SK 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Orebro SK's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osters IF 1.58 PPG, Orebro SK 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osters IF win broke the near-deadlock. Osters IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.