Osters IF 3-2 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees AFC Eskilstuna travel to Visma Arena to take on Osters IF. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 26 July 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Osters IF have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osters IF at Visma Arena this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AFC Eskilstuna — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, AFC Eskilstuna have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Osters IF 1.50 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Osters IF have won 1, AFC Eskilstuna 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Osters IF in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
AFC Eskilstuna in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osters IF 52% versus AFC Eskilstuna 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 36% | AFC Eskilstuna 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.72 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 1.004 / defence 1.149 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.067 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.267. Data: 44 Osters IF games / 44 AFC Eskilstuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 41% | Draw 25% | AFC Eskilstuna 34%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | AFC Eskilstuna 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osters IF are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osters IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Osters IF 70% | AFC Eskilstuna 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Jul 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 41% | Draw 25% | AFC Eskilstuna 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG Osters IF 1.72 / AFC Eskilstuna 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 1.004 / def 1.149 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.067 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
1.55
AFC Eskilstuna xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 26 July 2022 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Osters IF 3 - 2 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 41% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Osters IF and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and AFC Eskilstuna?
Record (2 meetings): Osters IF 1W | Draws 1 | AFC Eskilstuna 0W.
What form are Osters IF and AFC Eskilstuna in?
Osters IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Osters IF's attack rating (1.00) and AFC Eskilstuna's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Eskilstuna's attack versus Osters IF's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
41%
2.45
25%
3.98
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Osters IF xG
Total xG
3.27
1.55
AFC Eskilstuna xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
9%
11.58
6%
16.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Osters IF and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Osters IF and 1.55 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Osters IF have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 18W 14D 12L record — W-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AFC Eskilstuna's form line: 19W 8D 17L from 44 games, 1.48 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osters IF on 1.55 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Osters IF have posted 1.71 PPG from 21 outings (10W 6D 5L).
On the road, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 5W 4D 12L from 21 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AFC Eskilstuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osters IF are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; AFC Eskilstuna are on 1.64 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Blended
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and AFC Eskilstuna in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 18W 14D 12L in their last 44 games (1.55 PPG), while AFC Eskilstuna have gone 19W 8D 17L in their last 44 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or AFC Eskilstuna away?
Osters IF's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.71 PPG; AFC Eskilstuna away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Osters IF or AFC Eskilstuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, AFC Eskilstuna in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Osters IF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osters IF's record when hosting AFC Eskilstuna specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Osters IF
2
Draws
0
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 6 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 4, AFC Eskilstuna have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 5 August 2023, when AFC Eskilstuna 1-1 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and AFC Eskilstuna?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 52%, AFC Eskilstuna 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Osters IF) and 57% (AFC Eskilstuna).
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; AFC Eskilstuna in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play AFC Eskilstuna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Osters IF's games and 62% of AFC Eskilstuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Osters IF's recent games and 57% of AFC Eskilstuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osters IF and AFC Eskilstuna tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, AFC Eskilstuna in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osters IF edge out AFC Eskilstuna 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat AFC Eskilstuna 3-2 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.72 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.55 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Osters IF beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 1.00 / defence 1.15 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.07 / defence 1.16, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 41% | Draw 25% | AFC Eskilstuna 34%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 36%, AFC Eskilstuna 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osters IF 1.55 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osters IF win broke the near-deadlock. Osters IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.