Orgryte IS 2-2 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Orgryte IS host Trelleborg at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 18 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Orgryte IS — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Orgryte IS have posted 3W 6D 1L at Gamla Ullevi — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trelleborg stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Trelleborg have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Orgryte IS at 1.20 PPG versus Trelleborg's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Orgryte IS, 0 for Trelleborg and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Orgryte IS trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Trelleborg trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Orgryte IS 62% and Trelleborg 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Orgryte IS 42% | Trelleborg 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.27 xG and Trelleborg 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.009 / defence 1.153 | Trelleborg attack 0.753 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.078 / away 1.148. Data: 24 Orgryte IS games / 24 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 43% | Draw 28% | Trelleborg 29%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Trelleborg 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Orgryte IS 60% | Trelleborg 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 18 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 43% | Draw 28% | Trelleborg 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Orgryte IS 1.27 / Trelleborg 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.009 / def 1.153 | Trelleborg attack 0.753 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.078 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Trelleborg xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 18 October 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg?
Orgryte IS 2 - 2 Trelleborg.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg part of?
Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 43% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Orgryte IS and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Trelleborg?
Record (1 meetings): Orgryte IS 0W | Draws 1 | Trelleborg 0W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Trelleborg in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Trelleborg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 1.01x the league average against Trelleborg's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
43%
2.34
28%
3.54
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.27
1.00
Trelleborg xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
8%
12.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.00 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Orgryte IS come into this having played 24 games, going 6W 11D 7L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-D. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Trelleborg sit at 1.58 PPG from 24 outings (10W 8D 6L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orgryte IS on 1.21 PPG, Trelleborg on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Orgryte IS's home form reads 3W 7D 2L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Trelleborg have taken 1.17 points per game from 12 outings (3W 5D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trelleborg's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.33 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 6W 11D 7L in their last 24 games (1.21 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 10W 8D 6L in their last 24 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Trelleborg away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.33 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 25 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Orgryte IS go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting Trelleborg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Orgryte IS
2
Draws
6
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Trelleborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 2, Trelleborg have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 25 September 2025, when Trelleborg 0-2 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Trelleborg?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orgryte IS see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 58%, Trelleborg 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Orgryte IS and 33% for Trelleborg.
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Orgryte IS's games and 58% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 33% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS and Trelleborg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS and Trelleborg finished level at 2-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 25, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.27 xG and Trelleborg 1.00 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Trelleborg outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.01 / defence 1.15 against Trelleborg attack 0.75 / defence 1.17, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 43% | Draw 28% | Trelleborg 29%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 42%, Trelleborg 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Trelleborg's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.21 PPG, Trelleborg 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trelleborg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.