Orgryte IS 2-2 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ostersunds FK at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to Orgryte IS versus Ostersunds FK in Superettan, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 20 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Orgryte IS have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Gamla Ullevi this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ostersunds FK's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Orgryte IS 0W, Ostersunds FK 2W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Jun 2023, ended 1–2 with Ostersunds FK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Orgryte IS — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Ostersunds FK — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 60% versus Ostersunds FK 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 56% | Ostersunds FK 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.00 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.851 / defence 1.198 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.890 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.173. Data: 48 Orgryte IS games / 48 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 28% | Draw 31% | Ostersunds FK 41%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Ostersunds FK 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ostersunds FK are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Orgryte IS 80% | Ostersunds FK 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 28% | Draw 31% | Ostersunds FK 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Orgryte IS 1.00 / Ostersunds FK 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.851 / def 1.198 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.890 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Ostersunds FK xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK?
Orgryte IS 2 - 2 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 28% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK?
Record (3 meetings): Orgryte IS 0W | Draws 1 | Ostersunds FK 2W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Orgryte IS's attack rating (0.85) and Ostersunds FK's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ostersunds FK's attack (0.89x) against Orgryte IS's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
28%
3.52
31%
3.25
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.25
1.25
Ostersunds FK xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
8%
12.28
15%
6.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.25 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, Orgryte IS have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 13W 17D 20L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ostersunds FK's form line: 14W 18D 18L from 50 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-D. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Orgryte IS against 1.20 for Ostersunds FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Orgryte IS have posted 1.12 PPG from 25 outings (6W 10D 9L).
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 5W 9D 11L from 25 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.20 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Ostersunds FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 13W 17D 20L in their last 50 games (1.12 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 14W 18D 18L in their last 50 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.12 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 27 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Orgryte IS won 6-0 on 27 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orgryte IS have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Orgryte IS
3
Draws
3
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK?
From 8 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 2, Ostersunds FK have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2025, when Orgryte IS 6-0 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 60%, Ostersunds FK 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Orgryte IS) and 32% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Ostersunds FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Orgryte IS's games and 52% of Ostersunds FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 32% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 19, as Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK drew 2-2 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.00 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.25 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Orgryte IS beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.85 / defence 1.20 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.89 / defence 0.80, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 28% | Draw 31% | Ostersunds FK 41%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 56%, Ostersunds FK 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.12 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.