Orgryte IS 2-2 Norrby IF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs Norrby IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Orgryte IS host Norrby IF at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 August 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Orgryte IS have posted 2W 4D 2L at Gamla Ullevi — 1.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Superettan games this season, Norrby IF have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Norrby IF's away record: 4W 2D 3L from 9 road trips in Superettan this season (1.56 PPG). Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Orgryte IS 1.40 PPG, Norrby IF 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Orgryte IS have won 0, Norrby IF 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Norrby IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Orgryte IS in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Norrby IF in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 53% versus Norrby IF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Orgryte IS 35% | Norrby IF 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.02 xG and Norrby IF 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.816 / defence 1.004 | Norrby IF attack 0.963 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.078 / away 1.048. Data: 17 Orgryte IS games / 17 Norrby IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 35% | Draw 31% | Norrby IF 35%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Norrby IF 2.86. The draw (31%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 31% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 38% | Norrby IF 44% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 35% | Draw 31% | Norrby IF 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Orgryte IS 1.02 / Norrby IF 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.816 / def 1.004 | Norrby IF attack 0.963 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.078 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Draw (31%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Norrby IF xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Norrby IF kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Norrby IF kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Norrby IF?
Orgryte IS 2 - 2 Norrby IF.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Norrby IF part of?
Orgryte IS vs Norrby IF is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 35% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Orgryte IS and Norrby IF will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Norrby IF?
Record (1 meetings): Orgryte IS 0W | Draws 0 | Norrby IF 1W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Norrby IF in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Norrby IF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Orgryte IS's attack rating (0.82) and Norrby IF's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Norrby IF's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
35%
2.86
31%
3.28
35%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.04
1.01
Norrby IF xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
2.90
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
13%
7.88
12%
8.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 13.2 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.01 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Norrby IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Orgryte IS come into this having played 17 games, going 4W 7D 6L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Norrby IF sit at 1.76 PPG from 17 outings (9W 3D 5L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Norrby IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Orgryte IS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Orgryte IS's home form reads 2W 4D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Norrby IF have taken 1.75 points per game from 8 outings (4W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Norrby IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Orgryte IS are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Norrby IF are on 1.41 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Norrby IF in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Norrby IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Norrby IF in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 4W 7D 6L in their last 17 games (1.12 PPG), while Norrby IF have gone 9W 3D 5L in their last 17 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Norrby IF away?
Norrby IF's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.25 PPG; Norrby IF away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Orgryte IS or Norrby IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Norrby IF in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Aug 2022, when Orgryte IS won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting Norrby IF specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Orgryte IS
2
Draws
1
Norrby IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Norrby IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 1, Norrby IF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Norrby IF last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2022, when Orgryte IS 5-1 Norrby IF.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orgryte IS see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 38%, Norrby IF 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 12% for Orgryte IS and 38% for Norrby IF.
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Norrby IF in 50%; Orgryte IS have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Norrby IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 38% of Norrby IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orgryte IS vs Norrby IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 38% of Norrby IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and Norrby IF tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Norrby IF in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS and Norrby IF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 18, as Orgryte IS and Norrby IF drew 2-2 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.02 xG and Norrby IF 1.01 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Orgryte IS beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Norrby IF outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.82 / defence 1.00 against Norrby IF attack 0.96 / defence 1.16, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 35% | Draw 31% | Norrby IF 35%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 35%, Norrby IF 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Norrby IF's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Norrby IF arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Norrby IF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.