Orebro SK 2-2 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Trelleborg make the trip to Behrn Arena to face Orebro SK in Superettan, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Tuesday 12 July 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Orebro SK's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at Behrn Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Trelleborg (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Trelleborg are 0.50 PPG clear of Orebro SK in recent Superettan fixtures (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Orebro SK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Trelleborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 43% versus Trelleborg 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 52% | Trelleborg 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.21 xG and Trelleborg 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.760 / defence 0.990 | Trelleborg attack 1.132 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.323. Orebro SK's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Orebro SK games / 42 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 30% | Draw 27% | Trelleborg 43%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Trelleborg 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trelleborg are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trelleborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 50% | Trelleborg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 12 Jul 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 30% | Draw 27% | Trelleborg 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Orebro SK 1.21 / Trelleborg 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.760 / def 0.990 | Trelleborg attack 1.132 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Trelleborg xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Trelleborg kick off?
Orebro SK vs Trelleborg kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 12 July 2022 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Trelleborg?
Orebro SK 2 - 2 Trelleborg.
Where is Orebro SK vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Trelleborg part of?
Orebro SK vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 30% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Orebro SK and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Trelleborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Orebro SK and Trelleborg in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Trelleborg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Orebro SK's attack rating (0.76) and Trelleborg's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Trelleborg's attack (1.13x) against Orebro SK's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 12/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
30%
3.30
27%
3.75
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.69
1.48
Trelleborg xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
7%
14.53
13%
7.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.1 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.48 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, Orebro SK have picked up 0.81 PPG on a 9W 7D 26L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trelleborg's form line: 17W 13D 12L from 42 games, 1.52 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Trelleborg are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Orebro SK.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Orebro SK have posted 1.05 PPG from 20 outings (6W 3D 11L).
On the road, Trelleborg have gone 6W 7D 7L from 20 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orebro SK are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.48 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg in 67%.
Last 42 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 9W 7D 26L in their last 42 games (0.81 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 17W 13D 12L in their last 42 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Trelleborg away?
Trelleborg's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.05 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orebro SK have gone 0W 4D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Trelleborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Orebro SK
6
Draws
2
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Trelleborg?
From 8 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 0, Trelleborg have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Trelleborg 1-1 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Trelleborg?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 50%, Trelleborg 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Orebro SK) and 50% (Trelleborg).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Orebro SK's games and 70% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orebro SK vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Orebro SK's recent games and 50% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orebro SK and Trelleborg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 13, as Orebro SK and Trelleborg drew 2-2 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.21 xG and Trelleborg 1.48 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.76 / defence 0.99 against Trelleborg attack 1.13 / defence 1.08, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 30% | Draw 27% | Trelleborg 43%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 52%, Trelleborg 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Trelleborg's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Trelleborg arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.