Orebro SK 1-1 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Osters IF travel to Behrn Arena to take on Orebro SK. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 July 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orebro SK stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK's home record at Behrn Arena: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Behrn Arena.
Osters IF — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Osters IF have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Orebro SK at 1.10 PPG versus Osters IF's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Orebro SK, 0 for Osters IF and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Osters IF in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 43% versus Osters IF 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 45% | Osters IF 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.53 xG and Osters IF 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.887 / defence 0.840 | Osters IF attack 1.298 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.104. Osters IF have an above-average attack strength of 1.298 — the away xG of 1.20 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Orebro SK games / 42 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 45% | Draw 25% | Osters IF 30%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Osters IF 3.33. Orebro SK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orebro SK at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 40% | Osters IF 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Friday 7 Jul 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 45% | Draw 25% | Osters IF 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Orebro SK 1.53 / Osters IF 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.887 / def 0.840 | Osters IF attack 1.298 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Osters IF xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Osters IF kick off?
Orebro SK vs Osters IF kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 7 July 2023 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Osters IF?
Orebro SK 1 - 1 Osters IF.
Where is Orebro SK vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Osters IF part of?
Orebro SK vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 45% chance of winning, Osters IF a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Orebro SK and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Osters IF?
Record (2 meetings): Orebro SK 1W | Draws 1 | Osters IF 0W.
What form are Orebro SK and Osters IF in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Osters IF (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Orebro SK's attack at 0.89x the league average against Osters IF's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osters IF's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
45%
2.23
25%
3.97
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.74
1.20
Osters IF xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
13%
7.43
6%
15.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.20 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Orebro SK have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 13W 11D 18L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osters IF's form line: 18W 10D 14L from 42 games, 1.52 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orebro SK on 1.19 PPG, Osters IF on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Orebro SK have posted 1.43 PPG from 21 outings (8W 6D 7L).
On the road, Osters IF have gone 8W 6D 7L from 21 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Orebro SK are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.62 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osters IF in 64%.
Last 42 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Osters IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Osters IF in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 13W 11D 18L in their last 42 games (1.19 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 18W 10D 14L in their last 42 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Osters IF away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.43 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Orebro SK or Osters IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Osters IF in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orebro SK and Osters IF runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2023, when Osters IF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orebro SK's record when hosting Osters IF specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Orebro SK
3
Draws
3
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Osters IF?
From 7 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 1, Osters IF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Osters IF 0-0 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 38%, Osters IF 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Orebro SK) and 62% (Osters IF).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Orebro SK have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Osters IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 67% of Osters IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Orebro SK's recent games and 62% of Osters IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Osters IF tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orebro SK and Osters IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK and Osters IF finished level at 1-1 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.53 xG and Osters IF 1.20 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.89 / defence 0.84 against Osters IF attack 1.30 / defence 1.18, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 45% | Draw 25% | Osters IF 30%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 45%, Osters IF 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Osters IF's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.19 PPG, Osters IF 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.