Norrby IF 0-2 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utsikten at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Norrby IF vs Utsikten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Utsikten travel to Borås Arena to take on Norrby IF. The game is scheduled for Monday 23 May 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Norrby IF stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Norrby IF's home record at Borås Arena: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 1.13 xG and Utsikten 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 0.661 / defence 0.874 | Utsikten attack 0.968 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.441. Norrby IF's attack strength of 0.661 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Norrby IF games / 8 Utsikten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 32% | Draw 32% | Utsikten 36%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Utsikten 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Utsikten are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utsikten offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Monday 23 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 32% | Draw 32% | Utsikten 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Norrby IF 1.13 / Utsikten 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 0.661 / def 0.874 | Utsikten attack 0.968 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Utsikten xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs Utsikten kick off?
Norrby IF vs Utsikten kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 23 May 2022 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in Norrby IF vs Utsikten?
Norrby IF 0 - 2 Utsikten.
Where is Norrby IF vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is Norrby IF vs Utsikten part of?
Norrby IF vs Utsikten is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 32% chance of winning, Utsikten a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Norrby IF and Utsikten will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Utsikten?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Norrby IF and Utsikten in?
Norrby IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Norrby IF home split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Norrby IF's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Utsikten's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Utsikten's attack versus Norrby IF's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
32%
3.17
32%
3.08
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
2.34
1.22
Utsikten xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
9%
10.74
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 11.7 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Norrby IF and 1.22 for Utsikten, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs Utsikten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Pre-Season
Utsikten
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Norrby IF and Utsikten runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Norrby IF's record when hosting Utsikten specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Norrby IF
2
Draws
1
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Utsikten?
From 4 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 1, Utsikten have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and Utsikten last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Utsikten 1-1 Norrby IF.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Utsikten cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Norrby IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utsikten beat Norrby IF 0-2 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norrby IF 1.13 xG and Utsikten 1.22 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Norrby IF fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norrby IF attack 0.66 / defence 0.87 against Utsikten attack 0.97 / defence 1.13, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norrby IF 32% | Draw 32% | Utsikten 36%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.