Norrby IF 1-1 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Norrby IF at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Norrby IF vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Norrby IF and Trelleborg meet at Borås Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 September 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Norrby IF's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Norrby IF at Borås Arena this season: 5W 2D 2L from 9 home games — 1.89 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game.
Trelleborg (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Trelleborg have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Norrby IF against 2.00 for Trelleborg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Norrby IF, 1 for Trelleborg and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2021, ended 1–2 with Trelleborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Norrby IF — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Trelleborg — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norrby IF 50% versus Trelleborg 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Norrby IF 40% | Trelleborg 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 1.14 xG and Trelleborg 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 0.904 / defence 0.999 | Trelleborg attack 0.853 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.089. Data: 20 Norrby IF games / 20 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 40% | Draw 30% | Trelleborg 30%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Trelleborg 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Norrby IF at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Norrby IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Norrby IF 44% | Trelleborg 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 40% | Draw 30% | Trelleborg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Norrby IF 1.14 / Trelleborg 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 0.904 / def 0.999 | Trelleborg attack 0.853 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Norrby IF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Trelleborg xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs Trelleborg kick off?
Norrby IF vs Trelleborg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in Norrby IF vs Trelleborg?
Norrby IF 1 - 1 Trelleborg.
Where is Norrby IF vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is Norrby IF vs Trelleborg part of?
Norrby IF vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 40% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Norrby IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Norrby IF and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Trelleborg?
Record (1 meetings): Norrby IF 0W | Draws 0 | Trelleborg 1W.
What form are Norrby IF and Trelleborg in?
Norrby IF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Trelleborg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Norrby IF's attack at 0.90x the league average against Trelleborg's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Trelleborg's attack (0.85x) against Norrby IF's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norrby IF Win
40%
2.48
30%
3.33
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
2.06
0.93
Trelleborg xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
9%
10.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Norrby IF and 0.93 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Norrby IF come into this having played 20 games, going 9W 6D 5L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Trelleborg sit at 1.80 PPG from 20 outings (10W 6D 4L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Norrby IF against 1.80 for Trelleborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Norrby IF's home form reads 5W 2D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Trelleborg have taken 1.33 points per game from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trelleborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Norrby IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Norrby IF are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.35 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Norrby IF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Trelleborg in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norrby IF and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Norrby IF have gone 9W 6D 5L in their last 20 games (1.65 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 10W 6D 4L in their last 20 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norrby IF at home or Trelleborg away?
Norrby IF's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norrby IF at home: 1.89 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Norrby IF or Trelleborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Norrby IF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Trelleborg in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Trelleborg have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Norrby IF have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Trelleborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Norrby IF
1
Draws
3
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Trelleborg?
From 4 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 0, Trelleborg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2022, when Norrby IF 2-3 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Norrby IF and Trelleborg?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norrby IF 44%, Trelleborg 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Norrby IF and 33% for Trelleborg.
On the defensive side: Norrby IF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Trelleborg in 33%; Norrby IF have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norrby IF play Trelleborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Norrby IF's recent matches and 56% of Trelleborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Norrby IF vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Norrby IF's recent games and 33% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norrby IF and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Norrby IF have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Norrby IF and Trelleborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 21, as Norrby IF and Trelleborg drew 1-1 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norrby IF 1.14 xG and Trelleborg 0.93 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norrby IF attack 0.90 / defence 1.00 against Trelleborg attack 0.85 / defence 1.13, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norrby IF 40% | Draw 30% | Trelleborg 30%, with Norrby IF to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norrby IF 40%, Trelleborg 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norrby IF's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Trelleborg's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Norrby IF 1.65 PPG, Trelleborg 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.