Norrby IF vs IFK Norrkoping – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates IFK Norrkoping at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Norrby IF vs IFK Norrkoping encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 28 as Norrby IF welcome IFK Norrkoping to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 October 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Norrby IF have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at , Norrby IF have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Norrkoping stand at 9W 0D 1L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Norrkoping's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.20 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. IFK Norrkoping's 2.70 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Norrby IF's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Norrby IF, 0 for IFK Norrkoping and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Jun 2026, ended 1–0 with Norrby IF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Norrby IF in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
IFK Norrkoping in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norrby IF 65% versus IFK Norrkoping 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norrby IF 44% | IFK Norrkoping 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 1.04 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 1.011 / defence 1.135 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.229 / defence 0.732. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.295. IFK Norrkoping's defence strength of 0.732 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. IFK Norrkoping have an above-average attack strength of 1.229 — the away xG of 1.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 21 Norrby IF games / 21 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 20% | Draw 25% | IFK Norrkoping 54%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 5.00 | Draw 4.00 | IFK Norrkoping 1.85. IFK Norrkoping hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Norrkoping at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Norrkoping offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Norrby IF 70% | IFK Norrkoping 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 20% | Draw 25% | IFK Norrkoping 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Norrby IF 1.04 / IFK Norrkoping 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 1.011 / def 1.135 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.229 / def 0.732 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
1.80
IFK Norrkoping xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
Norrby IF vs IFK Norrkoping is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 25 October 2026.
What competition is Norrby IF vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
Norrby IF vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 20% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 54% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Norrby IF and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and IFK Norrkoping?
Record (1 meetings): Norrby IF 1W | Draws 0 | IFK Norrkoping 0W.
What form are Norrby IF and IFK Norrkoping in?
Norrby IF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Norrby IF's attack rating (1.01) and IFK Norrkoping's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Norrkoping's attack versus Norrby IF's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
20%
4.89
25%
3.95
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
2.84
1.80
IFK Norrkoping xG
4.89
20%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
16%
6.08
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
3%
29.73
19%
5.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Norrby IF and 1.80 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 23 outings, Norrby IF have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 5W 12D 6L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Norrkoping's form line: 15W 3D 5L from 23 games, 2.09 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, IFK Norrkoping are the form team by 0.92 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Norrby IF.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Norrby IF have posted 1.55 PPG from 11 outings (4W 5D 2L).
On the road, IFK Norrkoping have gone 8W 1D 2L from 11 away games — 2.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Norrkoping come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Norrby IF are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.78 scored and 0.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Norrby IF have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: IFK Norrkoping in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Blended
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norrby IF and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
Norrby IF have gone 5W 12D 6L in their last 23 games (1.17 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 15W 3D 5L in their last 23 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norrby IF at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
IFK Norrkoping's away record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norrby IF at home: 1.55 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 2.27 PPG.
Have Norrby IF or IFK Norrkoping been keeping clean sheets recently?
Norrby IF have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, IFK Norrkoping in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Norrby IF and IFK Norrkoping runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 28 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Norrby IF
0
Draws
0
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and IFK Norrkoping?
From 1 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 1, IFK Norrkoping have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 28 June 2026, when IFK Norrkoping 0-1 Norrby IF.
Who has won more matches between Norrby IF and IFK Norrkoping?
Norrby IF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norrby IF 73%, IFK Norrkoping 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Norrby IF) and 46% (IFK Norrkoping).
On the defensive side: IFK Norrkoping in 46%; Norrby IF have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norrby IF play IFK Norrkoping?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Norrby IF's games and 46% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Norrby IF vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Norrby IF's recent games and 46% of IFK Norrkoping's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norrby IF and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
Norrby IF have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.