Norrby IF 2-1 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Norrby IF at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Norrby IF vs AFC Eskilstuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AFC Eskilstuna make the trip to Borås Arena to face Norrby IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 May 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 0.95 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 1.010 / defence 1.060 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.570 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 0.909 / away 0.993. Data: 7 Norrby IF games / 6 AFC Eskilstuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 43% | Draw 35% | AFC Eskilstuna 22%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 2.33 | Draw 2.86 | AFC Eskilstuna 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.55. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.55 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — AFC Eskilstuna's lower xG of 0.60 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Norrby IF as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Norrby IF if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.55 combined xG gives a 20% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 May 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 43% | Draw 35% | AFC Eskilstuna 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 28% | xG Norrby IF 0.95 / AFC Eskilstuna 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 1.010 / def 1.060 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.570 / def 1.038 | league avg home 0.909 / away 0.993 • Poisson stance: Norrby IF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
0.60
AFC Eskilstuna xG
28%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
Norrby IF vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 23 May 2021 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in Norrby IF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Norrby IF 2 - 1 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is Norrby IF vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is Norrby IF vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
Norrby IF vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 43% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 22% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Norrby IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Norrby IF and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and AFC Eskilstuna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Norrby IF and AFC Eskilstuna in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Norrby IF's attack rating (1.01) and AFC Eskilstuna's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AFC Eskilstuna's attack (0.57x) against Norrby IF's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.60.
These ratings are built from 7/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 22.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.6%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norrby IF Win
43%
2.35
35%
2.85
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
20.2%
Home win
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
1.55
0.60
AFC Eskilstuna xG
2.35
43%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.61
72%
BTTS No
1.38
Clean Sheet
55%
1.82
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
9%
11.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.2 | 12.7 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.2 | 12.1 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.7%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Norrby IF and 0.60 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 1.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Pre-Season
AFC Eskilstuna
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Norrby IF have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AFC Eskilstuna won 4-1 on 14 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Norrby IF have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against AFC Eskilstuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Norrby IF
0
Draws
1
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 4 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 3, AFC Eskilstuna have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2022, when Norrby IF 2-1 AFC Eskilstuna.
Who has won more matches between Norrby IF and AFC Eskilstuna?
Norrby IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Norrby IF edge out AFC Eskilstuna 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norrby IF beat AFC Eskilstuna 2-1 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norrby IF 0.95 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 0.60 xG, a combined 1.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Norrby IF beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norrby IF attack 1.01 / defence 1.06 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.57 / defence 1.04, drawn from 7/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norrby IF 43% | Draw 35% | AFC Eskilstuna 22%, with Norrby IF to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 46% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.