Landskrona BoIS 1-0 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Landskrona BoIS vs Vasteras SK FK encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 16 as Landskrona BoIS welcome Vasteras SK FK to Landskrona Idrottsplats. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 August 2021 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 6W 2D 0L at Landskrona Idrottsplats — 2.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Landskrona BoIS are significantly better at Landskrona Idrottsplats than their overall form suggests.

Vasteras SK FK — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Vasteras SK FK away from home this season: 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Landskrona BoIS carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Landskrona BoIS have won 0, Vasteras SK FK 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2021, ended 1–3 with Vasteras SK FK winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Vasteras SK FK in-play and half-time data (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Landskrona BoIS 73% and Vasteras SK FK 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 53% | Vasteras SK FK 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.82 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.223 / defence 1.033 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.728 / defence 1.320. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.075. Vasteras SK FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.320 — this is suppressing Landskrona BoIS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Landskrona BoIS games / 15 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 61% | Draw 22% | Vasteras SK FK 16%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Vasteras SK FK 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Landskrona BoIS (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Landskrona BoIS 62% | Vasteras SK FK 50%.

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