Landskrona BoIS 2-1 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 26 as Landskrona BoIS welcome Varbergs BoIS FC to Landskrona Idrottsplats. Kick-off is set for Monday 6 October 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 4W 3D 3L at Landskrona Idrottsplats — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Varbergs BoIS FC — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Landskrona BoIS) versus 1.60 (Varbergs BoIS FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Landskrona BoIS, 2 for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2025, ended 2–4 with Varbergs BoIS FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Landskrona BoIS trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Varbergs BoIS FC trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 53% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 53% | Varbergs BoIS FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.30 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.843 / defence 0.957 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.123 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.173. Data: 55 Landskrona BoIS games / 55 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 37% | Draw 27% | Varbergs BoIS FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Varbergs BoIS FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 50% | Varbergs BoIS FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Monday 6 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 37% | Draw 27% | Varbergs BoIS FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.30 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.843 / def 0.957 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.123 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.566 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 6 October 2025 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Landskrona BoIS 2 - 1 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 37% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (3 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 0W | Draws 1 | Varbergs BoIS FC 2W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Landskrona BoIS's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Varbergs BoIS FC's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Varbergs BoIS FC's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
37%
2.67
27%
3.72
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.56
1.26
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
11%
9.44
10%
10.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.26 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Landskrona BoIS have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 22W 14D 19L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form line: 21W 17D 17L from 55 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Landskrona BoIS on 1.45 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Landskrona BoIS have posted 1.67 PPG from 27 outings (12W 9D 6L).
On the road, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 9W 8D 10L from 27 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.56 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Varbergs BoIS FC in 65%.
Last 55 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 22W 14D 19L in their last 55 games (1.45 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 21W 17D 17L in their last 55 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.67 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 22 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Landskrona BoIS have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2024, when Varbergs BoIS FC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting Varbergs BoIS FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Landskrona BoIS
1
Draws
2
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 5 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 June 2026, when Varbergs BoIS FC 2-3 Landskrona BoIS.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 52%, Varbergs BoIS FC 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Landskrona BoIS) and 59% (Varbergs BoIS FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Landskrona BoIS have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 70% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Landskrona BoIS's matches and 59% of Varbergs BoIS FC's.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out Varbergs BoIS FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Varbergs BoIS FC 2-1 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 26, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.30 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.26 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.84 / defence 0.96 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.12 / defence 0.98, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 37% | Draw 27% | Varbergs BoIS FC 36%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 53%, Varbergs BoIS FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.45 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.