Landskrona BoIS 1-2 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Landskrona BoIS (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Landskrona BoIS face Trelleborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Trelleborg travel to Landskrona Idrottsplats to take on Landskrona BoIS. The game is scheduled for Monday 21 July 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 4W 5D 1L at Landskrona Idrottsplats — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Trelleborg — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Landskrona BoIS carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Landskrona BoIS: 5 wins from 8 previous clashes against 0 for Trelleborg, with 3 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2024, ended 3–1 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Landskrona BoIS and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 57% versus Trelleborg 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 57% | Trelleborg 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.69 xG and Trelleborg 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.937 / defence 1.016 | Trelleborg attack 0.695 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.342. Trelleborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.272 — this is suppressing Landskrona BoIS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Landskrona BoIS games / 44 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 55% | Draw 24% | Trelleborg 21%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Trelleborg 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Landskrona BoIS (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 60% | Trelleborg 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Monday 21 Jul 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 55% | Draw 24% | Trelleborg 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.69 / Trelleborg 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.937 / def 1.016 | Trelleborg attack 0.695 / def 1.272 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Trelleborg xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 21 July 2025 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg?
Landskrona BoIS 1 - 2 Trelleborg.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 55% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg?
Record (8 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 5W | Draws 3 | Trelleborg 0W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Trelleborg (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Landskrona BoIS's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Trelleborg's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
55%
1.82
24%
4.16
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.64
0.95
Trelleborg xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
4%
25.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.4 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 0.95 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 44 games, going 19W 11D 14L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Trelleborg sit at 1.18 PPG from 44 outings (14W 10D 20L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Landskrona BoIS on 1.55 PPG, Trelleborg on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Landskrona BoIS's home form reads 10W 8D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Trelleborg have taken 0.95 points per game from 22 outings (6W 3D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 0.95 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 19W 11D 14L in their last 44 games (1.55 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 14W 10D 20L in their last 44 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Trelleborg away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.73 PPG; Trelleborg away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Landskrona BoIS or Trelleborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Landskrona BoIS have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Trelleborg in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 25 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Trelleborg have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2023, when Landskrona BoIS won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting Trelleborg specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Landskrona BoIS
3
Draws
2
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 5, Trelleborg have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2025, when Trelleborg 1-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 50%, Trelleborg 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Landskrona BoIS) and 41% (Trelleborg).
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Landskrona BoIS have failed to score in 27% of games; Trelleborg in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Trelleborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Landskrona BoIS's recent matches and 27% of Trelleborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 41% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Trelleborg defy the odds to beat Landskrona BoIS 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Landskrona BoIS 1-2 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.69 xG and Trelleborg 0.95 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Trelleborg outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.94 / defence 1.02 against Trelleborg attack 0.69 / defence 1.27, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 55% | Draw 24% | Trelleborg 21%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Trelleborg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 57%, Trelleborg 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Trelleborg's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.55 PPG, Trelleborg 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trelleborg win broke the near-deadlock. Trelleborg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.