Landskrona BoIS 4-0 Sandviken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Landskrona BoIS face Sandviken.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Landskrona BoIS host Sandviken at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Superettan (matchday 1). Kick-off is Sunday 31 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Landskrona BoIS have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Landskrona BoIS have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 2 matches, Sandviken stand at 1W 0D 1L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Landskrona BoIS) versus 1.50 (Sandviken). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.82 xG and Sandviken 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.968 / defence 1.030 | Sandviken attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.168. Data: built from Landskrona BoIS's last 30 games and Sandviken's last 0. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 56% | Draw 23% | Sandviken 21%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.79 | Draw 4.36 | Sandviken 4.74. The model has a clear lean to Landskrona BoIS (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Landskrona BoIS's last 10 home games and Sandviken's last 2 games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's sample (Landskrona BoIS 30 games, Sandviken 0) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken | Competition: Superettan, matchday 1 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Sunday 31 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 56% | Draw 23% | Sandviken 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.82 / Sandviken 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.968 / def 1.030 | Sandviken attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Sandviken xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken FAQs
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken?
Landskrona BoIS 4 - 0 Sandviken.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken is a Superettan fixture (matchday 1) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 56% chance of winning, Sandviken a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (0.97) and Sandviken's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sandviken's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Landskrona BoIS's last 30 games and Sandviken's last 0, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
56%
1.79
23%
4.36
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.84
1.02
Sandviken xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
3%
29.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.9 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.02 for Sandviken, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 0D 2L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L.
On the other side, Sandviken sit at 1.50 PPG from 2 outings (1W 0D 1L), a run that reads L-W across their last five.
Sandviken carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Landskrona BoIS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Sandviken are on 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Early Season
Sandviken
Pre-Season
Landskrona BoIS (Home) vs Sandviken (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Landskrona BoIS
Early Season
Sandviken
Pre-Season
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken Form FAQs
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Sandviken have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2024. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Landskrona BoIS have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 31 Mar 2024, when Landskrona BoIS won Landskrona BoIS 4-0 Sandviken.
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting Sandviken specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Landskrona BoIS
0
Draws
1
Sandviken
Recent Meetings
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Landskrona BoIS have won 5, Sandviken have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Landskrona BoIS 3-2 Sandviken.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Sandviken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Landskrona BoIS's recent matches and 50% of Sandviken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Landskrona BoIS's matches and 50% of Sandviken's.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Landskrona BoIS's recent matches and 100% of Sandviken's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Landskrona BoIS run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Sandviken.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Sandviken 4-0 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.82 xG and Sandviken 1.02 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sandviken landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.97 / defence 1.03 against Sandviken attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 56% | Draw 23% | Sandviken 21%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 100%, Sandviken 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Sandviken arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Landskrona BoIS winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Landskrona BoIS scored 4 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sandviken managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.