Landskrona BoIS 0-1 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ostersunds FK make the trip to Landskrona Idrottsplats to face Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Landskrona BoIS (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS at Landskrona Idrottsplats this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Landskrona BoIS are significantly better at Landskrona Idrottsplats than their overall form suggests.
Ostersunds FK's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Landskrona BoIS against 0.90 for Ostersunds FK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Landskrona BoIS lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Jul 2023, ended 1–4 with Ostersunds FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Landskrona BoIS — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Ostersunds FK — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 61% versus Ostersunds FK 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 50% | Ostersunds FK 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.22 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.959 / defence 1.103 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.916 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.101. Data: 46 Landskrona BoIS games / 46 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 37% | Draw 30% | Ostersunds FK 32%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Ostersunds FK 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Landskrona BoIS 70% | Ostersunds FK 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 37% | Draw 30% | Ostersunds FK 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.22 / Ostersunds FK 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.959 / def 1.103 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.916 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Ostersunds FK xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 August 2023 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK?
Landskrona BoIS 0 - 1 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 37% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Ostersunds FK?
Record (3 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 0W | Draws 1 | Ostersunds FK 2W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Ostersunds FK in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Landskrona BoIS's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Ostersunds FK's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Ostersunds FK's attack (0.92x) against Landskrona BoIS's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
37%
2.69
30%
3.28
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.33
1.11
Ostersunds FK xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
10%
10.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.9 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.11 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 46 games, going 17W 14D 15L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ostersunds FK sit at 1.20 PPG from 46 outings (13W 16D 17L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Landskrona BoIS against 1.20 for Ostersunds FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Landskrona BoIS's home form reads 12W 7D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Landskrona BoIS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Ostersunds FK have taken 0.87 points per game from 23 outings (4W 8D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.20 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
Ostersunds FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 17W 14D 15L in their last 46 games (1.41 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 13W 16D 17L in their last 46 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.87 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ostersunds FK won 4-1 on 15 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Landskrona BoIS have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Landskrona BoIS
2
Draws
5
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Ostersunds FK?
From 9 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, Ostersunds FK have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Ostersunds FK 2-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Ostersunds FK?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Landskrona BoIS, 52% for Ostersunds FK — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Landskrona BoIS) and 35% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Ostersunds FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 52% of Ostersunds FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 35% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ostersunds FK defy the odds to beat Landskrona BoIS 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat Landskrona BoIS 0-1 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 17, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.22 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.11 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Landskrona BoIS fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.96 / defence 1.10 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.92 / defence 0.91, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 37% | Draw 30% | Ostersunds FK 32%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Ostersunds FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 50%, Ostersunds FK 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.41 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.