Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Landskrona BoIS host Orebro SK at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Superettan, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 3W 5D 2L at Landskrona Idrottsplats — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Orebro SK have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Landskrona BoIS carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Landskrona BoIS register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Orebro SK in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, Orebro SK 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Orebro SK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Orebro SK in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Landskrona BoIS 59% and Orebro SK 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 51% | Orebro SK 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.53 xG and Orebro SK 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.867 / defence 0.860 | Orebro SK attack 0.906 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.295. Orebro SK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.255 — this is suppressing Landskrona BoIS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Landskrona BoIS games / 51 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 48% | Draw 28% | Orebro SK 24%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Orebro SK 4.17. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 60% | Orebro SK 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 48% | Draw 28% | Orebro SK 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.53 / Orebro SK 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.867 / def 0.860 | Orebro SK attack 0.906 / def 1.255 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Orebro SK xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 48% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK?
Record (9 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 4W | Draws 2 | Orebro SK 3W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Orebro SK (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (0.87) and Orebro SK's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
48%
2.09
28%
3.54
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.54
1.01
Orebro SK xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
5%
19.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.2 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.01 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 51 games, going 19W 15D 17L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-D. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Orebro SK sit at 0.88 PPG from 51 outings (9W 18D 24L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Orebro SK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Landskrona BoIS's home form reads 9W 10D 6L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Orebro SK have taken 0.60 points per game from 25 outings (2W 9D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.18 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orebro SK in 67%.
Last 51 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 19W 15D 17L in their last 51 games (1.41 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 9W 18D 24L in their last 51 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Orebro SK away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.48 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2023, when Orebro SK won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Landskrona BoIS
2
Draws
3
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK?
From 9 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, Orebro SK have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Orebro SK 1-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Landskrona BoIS at 64%, Orebro SK at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Landskrona BoIS) and 56% (Orebro SK).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Orebro SK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 76% of Orebro SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 56% of Orebro SK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.