Landskrona BoIS 2-1 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Helsingborg travel to Landskrona Idrottsplats to take on Landskrona BoIS. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 9 May 2023, 18:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Landskrona BoIS's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Landskrona Idrottsplats this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Helsingborg stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Helsingborg haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Helsingborg's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

On current form, Landskrona BoIS have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Landskrona BoIS have won 0, Helsingborg 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Helsingborg winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Helsingborg in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 62% versus Helsingborg 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 50% | Helsingborg 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.52 xG and Helsingborg 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.997 / defence 0.966 | Helsingborg attack 0.625 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.120. Data: 35 Landskrona BoIS games / 5 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 58% | Draw 26% | Helsingborg 17%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Helsingborg 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Landskrona BoIS (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 38% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. This conflicts with form data: Landskrona BoIS 70% | Helsingborg 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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