Landskrona BoIS 1-0 Gefle IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Gefle IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Landskrona BoIS host Gefle IF at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Superettan, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Landskrona BoIS's home record at Landskrona Idrottsplats: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Superettan appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.50 xG and Gefle IF 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.062 / defence 1.084 | Gefle IF attack 0.885 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.052. Data: 34 Landskrona BoIS games / 4 Gefle IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 49% | Draw 26% | Gefle IF 25%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Gefle IF 4.00. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Landskrona BoIS are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Gefle IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 49% | Draw 26% | Gefle IF 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.50 / Gefle IF 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.062 / def 1.084 | Gefle IF attack 0.885 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Gefle IF xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Gefle IF kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Gefle IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Gefle IF?
Landskrona BoIS 1 - 0 Gefle IF.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Gefle IF being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Gefle IF part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Gefle IF is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Gefle IF?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 49% chance of winning, Gefle IF a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Gefle IF?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Gefle IF will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Gefle IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Gefle IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Gefle IF in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Landskrona BoIS home split: 2.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Landskrona BoIS's attack at 1.06x the league average against Gefle IF's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gefle IF's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
49%
2.06
26%
3.85
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.51
1.01
Gefle IF xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
6%
17.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Gefle IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Gefle IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.01 for Gefle IF, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Gefle IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Pre-Season
Gefle IF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Landskrona BoIS and Gefle IF runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting Gefle IF specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Landskrona BoIS
1
Draws
1
Gefle IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Gefle IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, Gefle IF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Gefle IF last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2024, when Landskrona BoIS 0-2 Gefle IF.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Gefle IF?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Gefle IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out Gefle IF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Gefle IF 1-0 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.50 xG and Gefle IF 1.01 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gefle IF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.06 / defence 1.08 against Gefle IF attack 0.89 / defence 1.06, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 49% | Draw 26% | Gefle IF 25%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.