Jonkopings Sodra 2-1 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Vasteras SK FK at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 17 as Jonkopings Sodra welcome Vasteras SK FK to Stadsparksvallen. Kick-off is set for Thursday 4 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jonkopings Sodra's home record at Stadsparksvallen: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Superettan appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vasteras SK FK stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasteras SK FK's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Jonkopings Sodra) versus 1.30 (Vasteras SK FK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jonkopings Sodra register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Vasteras SK FK in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Jonkopings Sodra have won 0, Vasteras SK FK 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Jonkopings Sodra in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Vasteras SK FK in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jonkopings Sodra 56% versus Vasteras SK FK 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jonkopings Sodra 50% | Vasteras SK FK 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 1.41 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.956 / defence 1.259 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.887 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.301. Data: 46 Jonkopings Sodra games / 46 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 36% | Draw 27% | Vasteras SK FK 37%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Vasteras SK FK 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasteras SK FK are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Jonkopings Sodra 60% | Vasteras SK FK 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadsparksvallen • Kick-off: Thursday 4 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 36% | Draw 27% | Vasteras SK FK 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 1.41 / Vasteras SK FK 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.956 / def 1.259 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.887 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Vasteras SK FK xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 4 August 2022 at Stadsparksvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasteras SK FK?
Jonkopings Sodra 2 - 1 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Stadsparksvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 36% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (3 meetings): Jonkopings Sodra 0W | Draws 2 | Vasteras SK FK 1W.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Vasteras SK FK in?
Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jonkopings Sodra's attack rating (0.96) and Vasteras SK FK's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Jonkopings Sodra's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
36%
2.80
27%
3.73
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
2.86
1.45
Vasteras SK FK xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
8%
11.96
9%
10.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.7 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 1.45 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jonkopings Sodra come into this having played 46 games, going 13W 12D 21L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vasteras SK FK sit at 1.17 PPG from 46 outings (12W 18D 16L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jonkopings Sodra on 1.11 PPG, Vasteras SK FK on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jonkopings Sodra's home form reads 8W 6D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Vasteras SK FK have taken 1.09 points per game from 23 outings (6W 7D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Jonkopings Sodra are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.26 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vasteras SK FK in 61%.
Last 46 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Jonkopings Sodra have gone 13W 12D 21L in their last 46 games (1.11 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 12W 18D 16L in their last 46 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jonkopings Sodra at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Jonkopings Sodra's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jonkopings Sodra at home: 1.30 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jonkopings Sodra and Vasteras SK FK runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jonkopings Sodra's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Jonkopings Sodra
2
Draws
2
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Vasteras SK FK?
From 6 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 2, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 7 October 2023, when Vasteras SK FK 3-1 Jonkopings Sodra.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jonkopings Sodra 56%, Vasteras SK FK 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Jonkopings Sodra) and 39% (Vasteras SK FK).
On the defensive side: Jonkopings Sodra have failed to score in 35% of games; Vasteras SK FK in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jonkopings Sodra play Vasteras SK FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Jonkopings Sodra's recent matches and 52% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Jonkopings Sodra's recent games and 39% of Vasteras SK FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jonkopings Sodra and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Jonkopings Sodra have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jonkopings Sodra defy the odds to beat Vasteras SK FK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jonkopings Sodra beat Vasteras SK FK 2-1 at Stadsparksvallen, Regular Season - 17, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 1.41 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.45 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.96 / defence 1.26 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.89 / defence 1.05, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 36% | Draw 27% | Vasteras SK FK 37%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Jonkopings Sodra win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jonkopings Sodra 50%, Vasteras SK FK 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jonkopings Sodra 1.11 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jonkopings Sodra win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.