Jonkopings Sodra 2-4 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jonkopings Sodra vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadsparksvallen plays host to Jonkopings Sodra versus Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Tuesday 10 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jonkopings Sodra have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Jonkopings Sodra's home record at Stadsparksvallen: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Landskrona BoIS (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Landskrona BoIS's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Jonkopings Sodra, 1.00 for Landskrona BoIS — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Jonkopings Sodra, 1 for Landskrona BoIS and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Jonkopings Sodra half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Landskrona BoIS half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jonkopings Sodra 50% versus Landskrona BoIS 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jonkopings Sodra 43% | Landskrona BoIS 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 1.37 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.987 / defence 1.244 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.592 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.365. Data: 35 Jonkopings Sodra games / 35 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 45% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 28%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Landskrona BoIS 3.57. Jonkopings Sodra hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jonkopings Sodra at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jonkopings Sodra if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Jonkopings Sodra 40% | Landskrona BoIS 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadsparksvallen • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 45% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 1.37 / Landskrona BoIS 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.987 / def 1.244 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.592 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Landskrona BoIS xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 10 May 2022 at Stadsparksvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Landskrona BoIS?
Jonkopings Sodra 2 - 4 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Stadsparksvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 45% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (2 meetings): Jonkopings Sodra 1W | Draws 0 | Landskrona BoIS 1W.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Landskrona BoIS in?
Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jonkopings Sodra's attack rating (0.99) and Landskrona BoIS's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (0.59x) against Jonkopings Sodra's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
45%
2.21
27%
3.67
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
2.38
1.01
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
7%
14.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 1.01 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Jonkopings Sodra have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 10W 8D 12L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Landskrona BoIS's form line: 13W 5D 12L from 30 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Jonkopings Sodra against 1.47 for Landskrona BoIS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Jonkopings Sodra have posted 1.53 PPG from 15 outings (6W 5D 4L).
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 2W 3D 10L from 15 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Landskrona BoIS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jonkopings Sodra come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jonkopings Sodra are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.37 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Jonkopings Sodra have gone 10W 8D 12L in their last 30 games (1.27 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 13W 5D 12L in their last 30 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jonkopings Sodra at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Jonkopings Sodra's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jonkopings Sodra at home: 1.53 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Landskrona BoIS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Jonkopings Sodra
2
Draws
3
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Landskrona BoIS?
From 6 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 1, Landskrona BoIS have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2023, when Jonkopings Sodra 1-2 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Jonkopings Sodra and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jonkopings Sodra 53%, Landskrona BoIS 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Jonkopings Sodra) and 53% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Jonkopings Sodra have failed to score in 40% of games; Landskrona BoIS in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jonkopings Sodra play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Jonkopings Sodra's games and 60% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jonkopings Sodra vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Jonkopings Sodra's recent games and 53% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jonkopings Sodra and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Jonkopings Sodra have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Landskrona BoIS cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Jonkopings Sodra.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Jonkopings Sodra 2-4 at Stadsparksvallen, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 1.37 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.01 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS outscored their 1.01 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.99 / defence 1.24 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.59 / defence 0.96, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 45% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 28%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Landskrona BoIS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jonkopings Sodra 43%, Landskrona BoIS 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jonkopings Sodra 1.27 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.